THE current Pakistan-India relationship can be described as one of neither peace nor war. Moreover, high levels of mistrust, that increased significantly after India’s ill-advised move to annul held Kashmir’s autonomy in 2019, mean that prospects of lasting peace seem dim, especially as New Delhi is in no great hurry to make amends with Pakistan. Perhaps reflecting this ambivalent mood, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during his speech at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building in Astana, Kazakhstan, blasted India for its brutal behaviour in held Kashmir, as well as the BJP regime’s deplorable treatment of India’s minorities, yet kept the door open for rapprochement. The PM criticised India’s “policy of preferring bullet over ballot” in IHK, but added that Pakistan remained “willing to engage with India” to pursue peace provided New Delhi showed “sincerity of purpose”. A junior Indian minister attending the moot replied by repeating India’s standard line about Pakistan ending ‘cross-border terrorism’ and creating ‘suitable conditions’ for dialogue.

India’s intransigence and lack of efforts to restart dialogue are major obstacles standing in the way of peace in South Asia. For example, the Indian home minister recently said “we will not talk” to Pakistan. But our own mistakes have not helped in reviving the bilateral dialogue either. In fact, in the past, during the rule of both the PML-N and the PTI, attempts to restart trade relations with our eastern neighbour were thwarted, apparently by the establishment. Yet indications are that the thinking within the latter is changing. Speaking at an event in Islamabad last year, the army chief reiterated the need to “bury the past” with India and improve integration in South Asia. Time will tell if Gen Qamar Bajwa’s successor in GHQ will adhere to this line vis-à-vis India, or adopt another course. However, the fact is that trade relations can lessen tensions in the region, and create a mutual constituency for peace.

Without sacrificing the Kashmir issue, Pakistan can still pursue the ‘soft’, more doable goals with India, such as cultivating trade tries and resolving the Sir Creek and Siachen disputes, if India is indeed interested in de-escalation. Yet it is also true that this is a time of transition in Pakistan. Next month, the new army chief will take up the baton, while next year a new government will likely be formed in Islamabad. Also, India is due to hold general elections some time in 2024. So expecting peace dividends in the short term is unrealistic. What can be done now is to focus on back-channel contacts and ensure the situation does not deteriorate. Once power transitions are complete in both countries, longer-term goals can be discussed. And while a chest-thumping India publicly denies the need to improve relations with Pakistan, the establishment there must in its heart of hearts realise the value of a calm western border, and a more peaceful region.

Published in Dawn, October 15th, 2022