Oil steady as market weighs tight supply against recession fears

Published
1

Oil prices were steady to higher in Asia trade on Friday, lifted by supply concerns as attention turns to the next meeting between Opec and its allies, though fears of recession capped gains.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September delivery rose 38 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $96.80 a barrel by 0330 GMT, reversing losses from the previous session and on track for a nearly 3pc rise for the week.

Brent crude futures for September settlement, due to expire on Friday, were flat at $107.14 a barrel. The more active October contract climbed 8 cents, or 0.1pc, to $101.91.

“It certainly feels like we are back in trade-off mode again, where sentiment is shifting between recessionary risks in H2 and a fundamentally undersupplied market,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

A key driver will be the next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and allies led by Russia, together called Opec+, on Aug 3.

Producers have now unwound the record 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cut they agreed in April 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic slammed demand.

“Oil prices have little chance of (posting) deep losses on the back of a weak US dollar and the ongoing supply crunch,” said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng.

Opec+ sources said the group will consider keeping oil output unchanged for September, but two Opec+ sources also told Reuters a modest increase would be discussed.

A decision not to raise output would disappoint the United States after US President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia this month hoping to strike a deal on oil production.

A senior US administration official said on Thursday the government was optimistic about the Opec+ meeting, and said extra supply would help stabilise the market.

Analysts, however, said it would be difficult for Opec+ to boost supply much given that many producers are struggling to meet their production quotas due to a lack of investment in oil fields.

“Opec production is constrained, though supplies are stabilising in Libya and Ecuador. Under-investment in many member countries will keep production constrained,” ANZ Research analysts said.

Follow Dawn Business on X, LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook for insights on business, finance and tech from Pakistan and across the world.

Opinion

Editorial

Debt that stays
30 Jul, 2026

Debt that stays

THE power sector’s circular debt grew by Rs61bn in the last fiscal year, taking the total to roughly Rs1.67tr from...
HIV warning
30 Jul, 2026

HIV warning

THE HIV infections detected around two SESSI-run hospitals in Karachi demand far more than another hurried committee...
End trafficking
30 Jul, 2026

End trafficking

MODERN slavery, in the form of human trafficking, is among the state’s gravest failures. Scores of Pakistanis are...
AJK elections
29 Jul, 2026

AJK elections

CONSIDERING the political unrest that has rocked Azad Jammu and Kashmir in the recent past, free and fair general...
Still vulnerable
29 Jul, 2026

Still vulnerable

THE State Bank’s decision to hold the policy rate at 11.5pc is a prudent response to the heightened risks the...
Guarding the past
29 Jul, 2026

Guarding the past

THE return of 513 smuggled archaeological artefacts from the US is a welcome homecoming for objects that should ...