KARACHI: Pakistan faces potentially high tsunami risk with dual challenge; the natural disaster has high probability and, second, allows little response time as the triple junction known as the Makran subduction zone is located just 50 kilometres away from Balochistan’s coast, warned experts at a workshop on Wednesday.

The event — Media awareness on early warning system for hydrometeorological hazards (tsunami, cyclones and heavy rains) — was jointly organised by the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) in collaboration with United Nations Development Programme.

“We would just have 15 to 20 minutes to analyse the situation and respond. While Gwadar has elevated front (and a bit safe), its areas of East and West Bay are very vulnerable in case a tsunami occurs of the same (8.7 magnitude) intensity that struck in 1945. It will also inundate Gwadar port and the city,” said Tariq Ibrahim of the Met department, citing data generated with the help of simulation studies.

Country experienced 4,039 earthquakes from 2008 to 2014

About its impact on Karachi, he said one to two kilometre area of the city’s coast was very vulnerable (to damage). “The many tributaries of the Indus delta makes Sindh’s coast very vulnerable (to tsunami threat).”

The Makran subduction zone, he pointed out, had potential to generate future tsunamis in the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. More than 4,000 people were killed along Pakistan’s coast and neighbouring countries like Iran, India and Oman by tsunami in 1945.

“Pakistan is situated in a tectonically very active zone, lying at the triple plate junction of Indian, Eurasian and Arabian plate boundaries, where the Indian plate pushes into the Eurasian plate,” he said.

Both the Karakoram and Hindu Kush ranges, he said, were caused by the collision of the Indian plate into the Eurasian plate and that the Hindu Kush and the Pamir constituted one of the most seismically active earthquake zones in the world.

“We had 4,039 earthquakes in Pakistan in six years (2008-2014). But, most of them were of light and minor intensity (ranging between one and 4.9 magnitude),” he said.

Threat of intense cyclones

The experts at the workshop also explained in detail the threat Pakistan faced from cyclones and said there was a likelihood of intense cyclones in the future as sea temperature was rising. The changing climate might not affect their frequency of occurrence.

“In other oceans, however, the frequency of cyclones is predicted to increase with rise in sea level,” said chief meteorologist Dr Sardar Sarfaraz while giving a presentation on weather forecast and formation of cyclones.

Countries, he said, had learnt to minimise human and material losses from cyclones. In this respect, he gave the example of Bangladesh that had built elevated shelters in the coastal areas for immediate evacuation in case of a cyclone threat. Over 300,000 people died in the 1970 cyclone that hit East Pakistan.

“The socio-economic benefits of weather prediction are estimated to amount to at least $160 billion per year. For every dollar invested, at least $26 in socio-economic return could be realised,” he said, referring to a study conducted by the World Meteorological Organization.

During the discussion, it was highlighted that the Met department had modern art seismic monitoring and tsunami early warning centre at the PMD Complex in Karachi and Islamabad.

Published in Dawn, December 30th, 2021