BEIRUT, Oct 11: The head of the United Nations probe into former prime minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination had good news and bad news for Lebanese officials he met recently.
The good news was that Detlev Mehlis’s team has received some important leads in their investigations.
The bad news was that the UN official still lacks significant evidence to establish certainty, as he reportedly told Lebanese Justice Minister Charles Rizk.
Mr Mehlis met Mr Rizk recently and discussed the results of investigation in Damascus recently. The German prosecutor informed the justice minister that he was not sure about anything, signifying that he has not come up with tangible information about alleged Syrian involvement in Mr Hariri’s assassination.
Mr Mehlis reportedly asked the justice minister to convey this message to Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, but Mr Rizk urged the lead investigator to relay his impressions about the assassination directly to the premier.
Mr Rizk also insisted that he needs a final report reinforced with all tangible proof to achieve an indictment.
In the absence of a straightforward conclusion to the UN probe mission, the report that Mr Mehlis is scheduled to submit to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan on Oct 21 will be incomplete.
Mr Mehlis is now expected to ask for an extension of his mission. Lebanese sources concerned with the investigation believe that Mr Mehlis should continue his work until he comes up with concrete results.
AVOIDING AMBIGUITY: This is the only way to avoid ambiguity, said a source, referring to the fact that Lebanese security officials cannot be incriminated if their Syrian counterparts are cleared of all involvement.
Lebanon’s former heads of security, who have been in detention for almost a month now, are accused of having colluded with Damascus in Mr Hariri’s assassination.
Declaring one of these two camps innocent while implicating the other would be irrational, the sources argued.
Another indication that Mr Mehlis was not able to secure Damascus’s assistance came during the Cairo summit between Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Assad, recently.
According to an insider, President Assad seemed extremely comfortable with the results of Mr Mehlis’s mission in Damascus, telling President Mubarak that there was no evidence to implicate Syria.
Placed in this context, Mr Mubarak’s refusal to support isolating Syria sounds particularly significant.
Whatever the contents of Mr Mehlis’ report, it is likely to have a strong impact on Lebanon.
If the report does not include serious accusations against Syria, all of the pro-Syrian factions that have felt intimidated by developments since Mr Hariri’s assassination, are expected to launch a counterattack against the country’s anti-Syrian factions.
Another potential consequence is the release of the four former security chiefs, initially suspected of collaboration and plotting with the Syrian security services.
If Syria is cleared, keeping them in jail would only convince the public that the generals were nothing more than scapegoats.
If, on the contrary, Mr Mehlis points an accusing finger toward Damascus, the opposite will prevail. The anti-Syrian camp, led by Saad Hariri, the assassinated premier’s son, would feel vindicated and triumphant.
Pro-Syrian factions, particularly Hezbollah, would then find themselves in an embarrassing situation.
It is, therefore, not surprising that all eyes are fixed on Mr Mehlis’s report and various political groups are holding their breath in expectation of what almost everyone expects to be a critical period for the country.
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