NEW DELHI: India extended a lockdown for its 1.3 billion people until at least May 3 as Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned on Tuesday of economic sacrifices to save lives as the number of coronavirus cases crossed 10,000.
Sharp downward revisions to economic growth forecasts in the wake of the pandemic point towards sickening levels of unemployment, but Modi urged Indians to maintain the discipline shown in the first three weeks of the lockdown.
“That means until May 3, each and every one of us will have to remain in the lockdown,” Modi said in a televised address to the nation.
“From an economic only point of view, it undoubtedly looks costly right now; but measured against the lives of Indian citizens, there is no comparison itself.” Nepal extended the lockdown of its 30 million people until April 27. Nepal has 16 cases of the virus and no deaths, but worries about a spillover from India.
Modi spoke as latest government data showed the number of people infected with coronavirus in India had reached 10,363, with 339 deaths.
Although the numbers are small compared with hard-hit Western nations, health experts believe that is because of India’s low levels of testing and that actual infection levels could be far higher.
Lacking testing kits and protective gear for medical workers, India has only tested 137 per million of its population, compared with 15,935 per million in Italy, and 8,138 in the United States.
Health experts have warned that widespread contagion could be disastrous in a country where millions live in dense slums and the healthcare system is overstretched.
According to the government, India has about one doctor per 1,500 citizens. The World Health Organisation recommends one doctor per 1,000. In rural areas, where two-thirds of Indians live and rely almost solely on government hospitals, the ratio is one doctor to more than 10,000 people.
So far, more than three-quarters of India’s cases are concentrated in about 80 of the country’s more than 700 districts, including the two big cities, New Delhi and Mumbai.
“It is my request and prayer to all fellow citizens, that we must not let coronavirus spread to new areas at any cost,” Modi said. But the shutdown of the $2.9 trillion economy is exacting a heavy toll.
Since Modi first imposed the lockdown late last month, the unemployment rate has almost doubled to around 14.5 percent, according to data compiled by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a Mumbai-based private think-tank.
The shutdown sparked an exodus of millions of workers from small industries like textiles and leather, and service industries like retail, tourism, construction and other sectors from cities to the villages.
“I am well aware of the problems you have faced - some for food, some for movement from place to place, and others for staying away from homes and families,” Modi said.
For them, he offered hope of a slight easing of some curbs next week in parts of the country which are not hotspots.
Former finance minister P. Chidambaram said while the country stood behind Modi in fighting the pandemic, he could have done more for the millions of poor by opening its coffers.
“There is money, there is food, but the government will not release either money or food,” he said.
Most private economists and the World Bank have revised down India’s growth forecasts for the current year to between 1.5 percent and 2.8 percent as a result of the pandemic. Barclays Bank, in a note to clients on Tuesday, forecast zero growth in 2020.
Published in Dawn, April 15th, 2020
