AFTER years of vehemently polarised debates, the United Kingdom exited the European Union on Jan 31, marking the end of an era and the beginning of a new relationship. While there were celebrations among the Leave proponents, many others found themselves reliving the shock of the 2016 referendum result which plunged the future of the two entities into uncertainty. As the clock struck midnight in Brussels, British diplomats were locked out of Brussels’ internal databases and prevented from accessing diplomatic cables from 139 EU delegations around the world. Online EU maps were updated to reflect the divorce after a 47-year union, with the UK being marked in grey.

As the UK begins a transition period, little will change immediately. Until Dec 31, 2020, the UK will mainly stick to EU rules. Although British citizens are no longer EU citizens, over the next 11 months, they will be able to travel around the EU as freely as they did before the exit. However, the big challenges will come when the transition period ends and the status quo changes. On the EU side, there are many who have expressed scepticism about the possibility of a deal being hammered out in just 11 months. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has vowed to do so, but manufacturing lobby groups in his country have urged more clarity. The UK and EU are seeking to secure a free trade agreement that regulates their terms of trade, employment standards and environmental rules and other bilateral issues. The reality, however, is that trade deals are tedious and can take years to conclude and implement. If the two sides are unable to reach a deal by the end of 2020, the UK will have to brace itself for a ‘no-deal Brexit’ — which essentially means an increase in food prices and disruption to medicines and other goods. Before the formal departure, EU leaders had warned Britain that life outside the bloc would never match the benefits it enjoyed as a member. The EU commission president has said it is up to the UK to decide how close a relationship it wants. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, too, said the differences between the two will widen if the UK diverges from the notion of a single market. In these circumstances, there are serious challenges ahead for Prime Minister Johnson and his government. He will have to convince the people that the Brexit campaign was in the best interest of the British public.

Published in Dawn, February 2nd, 2020