WITH only the faintest hint of ceremony, this week Pakistan entered its 13th IMF programme since 1988.

That date is significant because that is when the first of the programmes was signed that contained the conditionality for structural reforms. It sought deep reform in the tax system as well as privatisation-related conditions, liberalisation of the foreign currency transactions and the mechanisms for raising government debt, in addition to reforms in gas and power pricing and a move away from a pegged towards a more market-determined exchange rate.

Each programme since then has carried these two dimensions: macroeconomic adjustment meaning more taxes, exchange rate depreciation and interest rates hike followed by structural reform. And in each case the story has played out in the same way: the government takes the money, imposes massive hardships on the population through austerity and ‘demand compression’, then reneges on its commitments for structural reform through a patchy implementation, at best.

This cycle has repeated itself so often now that if we were to add up all the years since 1988 that Pakistan has spent inside an IMF programme, we would find that the country has spent more time inside than outside Fund programmes. And now we are gearing up for one more round.

The new Pakistan that the ruling PTI promised has kicked off with the oldest of stories — an IMF programme and solemn invocations of a familiar mantra ie ‘we inherited a broken economy’. At least the former finance minister — Asad Umar — had the courage to acknowledge this and promised that this would be Pakistan’s last IMF programme, meaning he intended to ensure that this cycle of eternal return to the Fund would be broken.

His replacement — Adviser to the Prime Minister on Finance Hafeez Shaikh — who is an insider in the world of whispers that is the IFIs of Washington D.C., has made no such commitment.

It appears his brief is limited to ensuring that the adjustment dictated by the Fund is implemented regardless of the cries of pain from the factories, markets and streets of Pakistan. The only structural reforms that he is talking about at the moment is to ensure further revenue mobilisation, and perhaps a plan later this year to figure out what to do with the state-owned enterprises. So much for the Sarmaya Company that was such an integral part of the PTI’s election promises.

The finance adviser is preparing us all for what he says are ‘difficult decisions’ ahead, decisions that are his to make and, sadly, ours to suffer. In fact, there is a difficult question that he himself must answer: is he willing to commit on record that after this, Pakistan will never need another IMF programme again? Unless he answers that question, all the talk about ‘difficult decisions’ will ring hollow.

Published in Dawn, July 5th, 2019