TOKYO: East Asia’s dynamic economies which built themselves into mass exporters through innovation and hard work could be heading into the twilight era unless they urgently find a way to have more children.

Instead of focusing its energy on designing the electronics and cultural assets that drove its wealth, East Asia in just a few decades will see its most urgent priorities turn to solidifying pension systems and medical care as a smaller working population props up a growing army of seniors.

The elderly will likely eat up their savings to survive, meaning less cash on hand for other investments that sustain economic growth, experts warned ahead of World Population Day on Monday.

Some six per cent of Asia’s 3.88 billion people were aged 65 or older last year.

But with people living longer and more young people choosing to put off having families, that figure is set to nearly triple to 17 per cent of the estimated five billion Asians by 2050, according to the Population Reference Bureau, a US-based research group.

“The standout feature of ageing in Asian economies is that it is happening extremely fast,” said Manabu Shimasawa, associate professor of economy at Japan’s Akita Keizaihoka University.

A study in May by ABN-Amro said Asia had an “unprecedented demographic challenge” with an ageing population and with existing pension assets that are low in proportion to Gross Domestic Product.

The study found that South Korea was the most vulnerable in part due to the relatively meager wages among nations whose populations are set to dip.

China, now the toast of the business world for its surging economic expansion, will likely see its growth plunge from nine per cent in 2002 to three per cent in the next 50 years, Shimasawa said.

The percentage of the elderly will shoot up from 6.9 per cent in 2000 to 22.7 per cent in 2050, according to Shimasawa’s estimate.

China has made a conscious effort to control its billion-plus population in a rare effort for a developing nation. But for more developed economies, the cost of having fewer children could be much more acute.

In Japan, the elderly population will account for 35.7 per cent of population by 2050, up from 17.4 per cent in 2000, Shimasawa said.

Some 27.4 per cent of the South Koreans will become elderly by 2050, up from 7.1 per cent in 2000. For Singapore, the ratio will be 28.6 per cent in 2050, up from 7.2 percent in 2000, he said.

Seniors will have to contribute to economy, workforce.—AFP