ISLAMABAD: Less rain during the next three months can lead to water shortage throughout the winters, the Met Office said on Sunday.

There will be early snowfall in October and November, the Met Office said, and that there has been some snowfall in Kohistan already. Though there will be less snow in December and January, more snow is expected in February and March, the Met Office predicted.

“However, we are not expecting a good winter in terms of water availability. Even if there is some [snowfall], water will still not be available till the snow melts during the next summers. We might be looking at a water crisis. The Met Office has already issued a drought alert,” Met Department Director General Ghulam Rasul said.

He said concerned offices are not taking the drought alert seriously.

The alert was sent to some 200 concerned departments across the country, including the ministries of food security, water resources, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) and provincial departments, most likely to be affected by the drought.

Met Office says it has already issued drought alerts, rabbi crops likely to be adversely affected

“However, no one has approached the met department about the extreme weather alert that can [affect] both Sindh and Balochistan,” he said.

Mr Rasul said: “We are expecting minimal [rains] in the next three months. Mangla Dam is half full which means we have enough water for 15 or 20 days at the most.”

He warned that the expected water shortage will likely affect rabbi sowing between October and December. The production of wheat, a major rabbi crop, will also be affected.

The temperature is expected to remain hot and humid in September, he added.

Asked why smartphone weather applications show inaccurate forecasts, the DG Met Office explained that the source of their data is unreliable.

“Weather applications are updated by random, freelance weather setups that mostly use cheap instruments and the techniques followed to process data are also questionable. The Pakistan Met Department does not share its weather data with freelance, random weather offices except with World Weather Information Service, which is the global website that presents official weather observations,” Mr Rasul said.

However, the Met Office is developing an indigenous weather application which should be launched in the next six months, depending on government funding.

He advised people to subscribe to the Met Office’s messaging service for daily weather updates twice a day.

According to the official, short range weather forecast ranging from a few hours to three days is 89pc to 90pc accurate. The medium range forecast between three days to seven days is 72pc to 73pc accurate. And the long range predictions of up to three months are as accurate as they are around the world, up to 67pc exact.

“However, the Met Office keeps updating long range weather forecast every month to incorporate changes in weather,” the official said.

Published in Dawn, September 17th, 2018