Fiscal stress

Published December 5, 2017

IT may have taken another meeting with the IMF, this time for post-programme monitoring, but the government has been pushed into releasing some essential data that it has been sitting on for almost a year now. Specifically, the debt management report, which was due in March but was only uploaded to the ministry website over the weekend.

Moreover, the fiscal deficit figure for the first quarter has been revised up, from 0.9pc originally given by former finance minister Ishaq Dar back in October to 1.2pc released recently. The upward revision was couched inside revenue collection data which was headlined by the fact that tax revenue collection jumped by 20pc in the same quarter. This ought to sound like a triumph of sorts for the lethargic tax authorities, but seen in the context of the upwardly revised deficit figure, it loses some of its shine.

In fact, signs are mounting that the government will live up to the fears expressed prior to the budget — that election-related priorities would eat away all the gains on the fiscal front since 2013. The upward revision comes at a bad time, when the government is gearing up to sterilise the inflows from the bond auction last week, the funds from which are scheduled to land in a few days. Domestic borrowing will need to be constrained by a corresponding amount if the resultant inflows are not to upset the monetary indicators and lead to an unplanned expansion of the money supply.

Now that the hand of government has been forced, even if ever so slightly, to present a truer picture of the fiscal state of affairs, it is a good time to recall that the budget announced this June has wholly unrealistic targets in it, particularly for the revenue side. Current expenditures are actually budgeted to fall by Rs141bn from last year, an expectation that strains the imagination considering every other year current expenditures have always blown past the budgetary allocation.

The inordinately heavy emphasis on development spending, particularly on pet projects, is likely to feel the strain as this revenue picture carries forward. And that strain is likely to land up in growing public debt. So the fiscal framework is already coming under stress, something that is currently being addressed through window dressing. But this cannot continue for much longer.

The country needs a strong finance minister, and the decision to appoint one should be made soon.

Published in Dawn, December 5th, 2017

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