Citing Pakistan’s miniscule share in global trade, business tycoons closely watching the US election contest do not expect the eventual triumph of either candidate to directly affect Pakistan or its economy.

Even so, they are sure that the country cannot possibly be immune to global market reaction in the long run. Like their peers elsewhere, they see the presidential candidate Donald Trump as a riskier bet for global markets.

Some sounded worried after watching the first public presidential debate which crystallised the position of the candidates on key issues. The level of uncertainty in an already volatile world might increase if Trump assumes power in the US after the November elections.

They noted the weakening of the dollar and the proposed changes by Trump’s tax and trade policies which could upset the current fragile balance in the world economy, still struggling to shake off the impact of the ‘made in US’ 2008 economic crisis, and break out of the long spell of recession that followed.

They fear that a negative response from capital markets, to a possible Republican Party victory, could kick-start the next spiral of low economic activity. Businesses may avoid risk-taking and hold back investment plans. Foot loose capital might also become restless.

A cement tycoon warned against dismissing Trump as a distraction. He believed that the Republican candidate was riding the same popular wave sweeping through the West that drove Britain out of the EU.

Some top businessmen currently visiting the US, and who considered Democrats more hostile to Pakistan in the past, have now switched their position. They expect the US to get tougher while dealing with their home country if Democrats are voted out of the White House.

High placed functionaries in the economic ministries, including the Planning Commission and Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, seemed too overwhelmed by their lethargic routines to care to monitor US politics or ponder over the possible consequences for Pakistan of the outcome of the approaching US elections.

A Lahore-based business tycoon considered it inappropriate for the government to ignore global developments that could hike the vulnerability of the already troubled country and expose people and companies to avoidable risks.

“Only ignorant people can disregard developments in the world’s biggest economy, one that primarily sets global market trends. The US owns about one third of the world’s assets and leads in the most crucial fields of technology, innovations and knowledge.

“Yes it concerns us the way it concerns anyone outside the US. I believe Trump has stolen the Republican Party constituency in the US and is capitalising on the economic and social insecurities of workers and smaller enterprises to reach the Oval office.

“Hillary Clinton articulated her position well but her agenda is not a populist one. Trump repeatedly mentioned job loss, tax cuts and unfair trade deals, things that touch people and businesses that are in trouble”, Mian Muhammad Mansha, chairman Nishat Group and MCB, commented over phone on the day of the first presidential debate last week from Lahore.

“I tend to agree with the perception that Trump is more of a loose cannon. It would become harder to predict the future if he succeeds. Even the pretence of market stability could become difficult to maintain under his watch”, he added.

Another major business group head, who requested not to be named, dreads the consequences for Pakistan if China and the US decide to test their power in the region, with Trump heading the US.

“I hope Pakistan is not sucked in a conflict between the US and its rivals all over again, with someone like Donald Trump in a decisive, decision making position. It will stall the process that Pakistan desperately needs for stability and development — the transformation from security to a democratic welfare state”, he asserted.

A former chairman of the All Pakistan Textile Mills Association thought that the timing of the US election suited Pakistan as the frantic election activity blunted moves to isolate and blacklist Pakistan.

“With the Indian lobby super active in Washington and the general discomfort of Westerners with Muslims, the situation could have been explosive had it not been the election year in the US”, a major garment exporter said.

“The fact is that Trump can actually win this election. Just before the referendum world leaders were mocking Bexit but ordinary Britons assumed it to be a perfect solution for their problems and they used the ballot to enforce their will.

“I think a typical American, for whom life during the past decade fared below his expectation, is simple. He wants a job and a better living standard for his family. It is not just his bias against immigrants; he personally knows the Turk, Iranian or Bangladeshi who was hired in his place at half the pay. Had these people not been there his boss might have acted differently. For him refugees are polluting not just the US culture but also snatching jobs from Americans. The anti-immigration stance of Trump inspires them”, he reasoned.

Despite strained diplomatic relations the bilateral economic ties between Pakistan and the US are strong, with the trade balance tipping in our favour.

The total volume of bilateral trade is about $5bn. Over 15pc of the country’s exports are directed to the US and less than 5pc imports originate from there. Half a million Pakistani immigrants in the US send close to 8pc of total remittances.

With over 100 US companies operating in Pakistan, the US is a major source of foreign direct investment, though now the $46bn Chinese investment in CPEC outshines other investments.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, October 3rd, 2016