WASHINGTON: The insurgency in Afghanistan will be a greater threat in 2015–2018 than it is now due to the reduction in US and Nato forces and continued presence of insurgent sanctuaries in Pakistan, says an official US report.

The report by the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), sent to Congress earlier this week, also says that Washington could be spending up to $10 billion a year in Afghanistan till 2018 and beyond.

The report includes a study by the US Centre for Naval Analysis (CNA), which predicts that the Taliban will keep pressure on the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF), “expand its influence in areas vacated by coalition forces, encircle key cities, and conduct high-profile attacks in Kabul and other cities.”

It says that the Taliban will conserve resources in the short term as they recover from years of coalition operations before launching “a larger and more intense military effort”.

The CNA assessment concludes that if the ANSF are successful through 2018, a negotiated political settlement is more likely in 2019–2023. To do this, the ANSF needs strength of 373,400 personnel, with some changes to its existing force structure, through 2018.

According to CNA, Afghanistan will require international assistance and advisers “through at least 2018” with “similar authorities to the mission in Afghanistan today”.

“The withdrawal of international community support is likely to have consequences up to and including renewed civil war in Afghanistan and increased instability in the region,” the report warns.

While analysing the Afghan economy, SIGAR quotes a World Bank report which found that Afghanistan’s trade deficit widened in 2012 to the equivalent of 41.9 per cent of GDP.

Total exports in 2012 increased approximately 3pc to $2.76 billion, while total imports rose about 11pc to $11.4 billion.

This gap was largely offset by foreign aid. International assistance allowed for an overall surplus in Afghanistan’s balance of payments and a record $7.1 billion in international reserves at the end of 2012. Reserves declined to $6.9 billion in June 2013.

The international community will have to continue to fill this gap in the foreseeable future, the report says.

Quoting figures released by the US Department of Defence, the report says that since February 2014, the United States has kept 33,200 troops in Afghanistan.

Since operations began in 2001, a total of 2,178 US military personnel have died in Afghanistan – 83pc killed in action –and 19,523 were wounded as of April 4, 2014.

ISAF commander General Joseph F. Dunford has recommended a post-2014 force of 12,000 troops: 8,000 US and 4,000 international. While most of these troops would support, train, and advise the ANSF, approximately 2,000 would conduct counter-terrorism operations.

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2014