A FEW weeks ago, a small news item caught my eye: a Pakistani had stowed away in the compartment housing the wheel of a commercial jetliner in Malaysia, and was found frozen to death when the plane landed in Frankfurt.

Such tragic deaths have occurred with depressing regularity as desperate people from around the world illegally try to cross international boundaries to make a better future for themselves and their families. Many have been found dead on arrival in containers and trucks; others are rotting in jails, awaiting deportation.

Pakistanis have been both more enterprising and more desperate in their efforts to find opportunities abroad, making their way to countries as distant as Brunei and Belgium. From time to time, horrifying stories of their ordeals have appeared in the press, attesting to their determination and courage.

Of late, the rush for Western visas, specially to the United States, has come to resemble the panicky scramble to flee a building in flames. Apparently, the courier service that is authorized to accept US visa applications is virtually besieged, and the lines at the American Embassy in Islamabad start forming before dawn.

According to a recent Washington Post story, in their interviews with consular officers, many applicants admit their intention to work in America, although they have asked for tourist visas. Although their applications are rejected, they vow to try again. Talking to the newspaper's correspondent, many of them said they were determined to leave as they saw no hope for their families in Pakistan.

Such attitudes and perceptions have long fuelled the brawn-and brain-drain, especially among the young. But, of late, the well-to-do, established professionals have joined this lemming-like rush. Many of them are close friends who, not very long ago, would never have considered uprooting themselves from their comfortable lives to start from scratch abroad.

Recently, I ran into somebody who has been at the forefront of our civil rights movement, selflessly working to improve the functioning of public utility services so that citizens got a better deal. I had written about him and his work a few years ago, and considered him one of the most committed and dedicated people I had ever met. I was, therefore, shocked when he informed me that he had decided to sell his house and move to the United States.

He said that, after years of efforts, he could not generate any support for his work. Without funding or volunteers, he had become so discouraged that he had decided to pack up and push off. Basically, he has given up after years of sinking his own time and resources into what he now sees as a thankless task.

If gung-ho activists like Mian Sahib can give up on Pakistan, it should not surprise us that other, less motivated people should leave what they see as a sinking ship. In his recent press conference, General Pervez Musharraf asked Pakistanis to show their patriotism and spirit of self-sacrifice, and not succumb to the lure of a better life in the West. Unfortunately, when it comes to career prospects, greater security and a higher quality of life, people vote with their feet and go where the jobs are. Also, parents want the best for their children in terms of educational facilities and a brighter future.

Quite apart from material factors that operate all over the world, Pakistanis are suffering from a loss of confidence and morale that has more to do with our political and social situation. Poor governance, a steady rise in religious fanaticism, and a decline in law and order constitute the backdrop to the current scenario that is also marked with specific events like the nuclear tests and their economic fallout, the disastrous Kargil misadventure and last year's army coup.

Years of political instability, corruption in high places, bureaucratic inefficiency, institutional breakdown and economic stagnation have sapped public confidence in the state of Pakistan. Today, very few Pakistanis repose any faith in politicians, generals, judges, businessmen or any other public figures. Cynicism is rampant: when even cricketing heroes are considered guilty of match-fixing, it should come as no surprise when the word of heads of state and government are suspect.

The Chief Executive, General Musharraf, considers the press to be guilty of spreading despondency and demoralization. But given the fact that prices are rising, unemployment is rampant, the rupee has been in free fall and the stock market is in the doldrums, journalists can hardly be blamed for not having much good news to report. Few people have (yet) accused the army junta of causing this situation, as we know that there is a huge backlog of unresolved economic problems. But then equally few people are willing to give the regime any credit for sorting out these issues.

An important factor in the present rush to emigrate is the loss of business confidence triggered by the various army monitoring teams as well as the single-minded focus on accountability. Construction is at a virtual standstill with real estate prices at a record low. Thousands of houses, flats and shops are empty. Businessmen fear having to answer awkward questions if they buy any property.

The result of this is a deepening of the recession the country has been passing through these last few years. The ongoing drive to document the economy and bring vast chunks of the business community into the tax net, while necessary and praiseworthy, has shaken the trading class and brought fresh investments to a virtual halt.

All this has hit the urban poor specially hard. Construction workers by the thousands have little work to do. Shopkeepers report plunging sales. The sense of despair is palpable and contagious. Perhaps the worst aspect of this gloomy scenario is that many people have lost hope and no longer believe that things are going to improve. They thus see no option but to bail out before a complete meltdown.

The exodus resulting from this perception of the Pakistani condition has been accompanied by a massive flight of capital. While this phenomenon is hardly new, of late it has acquired a momentum that has put the rupee under tremendous pressure. And as the inevitable devaluation has occurred, prices have increased and will do so again as power rates are enhanced. In effect the plunging rupee has acted as a barometer of our falling confidence.

If this trend is to be halted, drastic action needs to be taken. We need to stop going against the flow of international currents by reverting to civilian rule, sign the CTBT, find a political solution to problems in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and strongly discourage fanatical elements in our society. Unfortunately, all this is wishful thinking: things will continue to slide and Pakistanis in large numbers will continue to jump ship.