Fears mount as Afghan Army prepares to take over

Published August 28, 2013
Afghan security forces stand guard in Zana Khan district in Ghazni province - Photo by AFP
Afghan security forces stand guard in Zana Khan district in Ghazni province - Photo by AFP

KABUL: Hamida Gulistani was getting ready to leave home for her office when she heard the crack of gunfire. Looking out through the gates of her house, she saw that her driver lay dead.

Gulistani’s neighbor was shouting that the house was under attack, yet nobody came to help. The Afghan army and police failed to respond to her frantic calls.

As an elected provincial councilor, she was a prime target for the Taliban.

She has since moved from her province of Ghazni to the relatively safer Afghan capital of Kabul.

Having become a source of insurgent activity in the past year, Ghazni and neighboring province Wardak have been the recipients of high scale abductions and killings.

Dozens of such activities are reported weekly on the main highway linking Kabul to Kandahar, increasing fears regarding the inability of the budding Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) to protect the country after Western troops leave next year.

''All the people who voted for me have many concerns for 2014,'' says Gulistani. ''The people are so disappointed, hopeless for the future of Ghazni.''

Lt. Gen. Mark Milley who runs the day-to-day coalition campaign in Afghanistan, believes only a small stretch of the 1,900-kilometer highway has been affected.

Milley feels the ANSF is completely capable of operating alone and successfully carrying out large scale operations without US-military assistance.

But while Americans sound optimistic, their Afghan counterparts are fearful regarding the future of their country after Western forces move out next year.

They fear a return of the civil war of the 1990s, which led to the rise of the Taliban, the September 11 attacks and the resulting US-led invasion.

Many are skeptical of the competency of the Afghan forces to protect the presidential elections scheduled for next April, which will be the first with Karzai.

Having governed the country since the 2001 invasion, Karzai is constitutionally banned from running for government again.

With the deadline for the withdrawal of US and Nato combat troops just 16 months away, President Hamid Karzai is trying to convince international agencies to keep some foreign troops in the country as a backup.

For Afghans wishing for continued Western security against possible Taliban resurgence, such is dependent on a continued influx of $8 billion a year in Western funding of government and security forces, a deal to leave some foreign forces behind.

According to Jawed Kohistani, an Afghan political and military analyst, if a bilateral security agreement is not signed, the country will not have strong international support after 2014.

That deal is reportedly ready but Karzai is reluctant to sign lest nationalists accuse him of caving in to American demands, saying his successor can do so. Critics blame the rising fears in Afghanistan on Karzai’s hesitancy to work out a security deal.

“What will happen to Afghanistan if the US decides to abandon the country like it did Iraq?” Kohistani wonders.

While Nato and US military officials want a decision by October, US President Barack Obama will not announce troop numbers until a deal is done.

US military and diplomatic officials insist there are great benefits to a bilateral security agreement.

Marine General Joseph Dunford, the top US and coalition commander in Afghanistan, said in a recent interview, that the agreement will “send a clear message first to the Afghan people and Afghan security forces, and enhance their confidence.”

He added that it would also send a clear message to the Taliban that they could not wait out the Western security forces.

Although Obama is as yet undecided, it is thought about 9,000 US troops would join about 6,000 from the US allies.

Currently about 100,000 troops from 48 countries are in Afghanistan, 60,000 of them American.

By the end of this year, the Nato force will be halved.

Military officials point to the progress Afghan forces have made, with their ranks growing nine fold in the past six years to about 352,000.

While they acknowledge more training will be required, they also state that the Afghans “are in the lead, every day”.

“They are planning, coordinating and carrying out operations,” said Lt. General Milley.

Regardless of the confidence Americans have in Afghan forces, doubt resonates across the country about Afghanistan’s future.

Michael O’ Hanlon of the Brookings Institution and an Afghan expert, said there was little doubt that the White House wanted to continue funding and supporting Afghanistan after 2014, despite its hesitancy.

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