CONDUCIVE weather conditions and supporting policies have overriding impact on overall agricultural productivity. And unless the biological and economic factors coincide, a bumper harvest is difficult to anticipate.

Wheat production pattern is largely driven by the nature of soil, timely availability of key inputs such as irrigation water, seed and fertiliser, future prices of the commodity, weather condition and crop husbandry throughout the growth period of the crop.

Preliminary wheat crop estimates for the current season generated by the Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) system of crop monitoring, through satellite technology, reveals a bumper harvest. Wheat production of 26.3 million tonnes is unprecedented, of which about 75 per cent will be produced in Punjab. Average national yield has been worked out at 2.8 tonnes per hectare, with the highest in Punjab (2.94 tonnes per hectare), and the lowest in Balochistan (2.38 tonnes per hectare).

Wheat production will be 12.5 per cent more than last year, and even higher than the highest production of 25.2 million tonnes achieved in 2010-11. This will not only ensure food security, but also provide over two million tonnes in exportable surpluses with declining world wheat stocks, and earn direly needed foreign exchange. The additional production of two million tonnes of wheat is a great breakthrough in the presence of very precarious balance of production and consumption.

The government has tried to offer a good price to get better productivity owing to bitter experience of 2007-08 price hikes in international market and resultantly illegal cross border movement. A lucrative price of Rs950 per 40 kilogrammes (kg) announced for 2008-09 was retained for succeeding years till 2011-12, when it was further moved up to Rs1,050 per 40 kg, due to an escalation in input prices.

The main objective of the high support price policy was to achieve domestic food security. This was continued even in the situation of comparatively lower international wheat prices and surplus national wheat stocks. The availability of wheat and wheat flour had never been an issue during the last four years.

For the current wheat crop, the support price has been enhanced to the level of Rs1,200 per 40 kg. This decision received criticism from different quarters. A close look at the analysis carried out by the Agriculture Policy Institute suggested an import parity price of Rs1,717 and Rs1,637 per 40 kg for Punjab and Sindh respectively. The cost of production was worked out at around Rs1,040 per 40 kg.

This shows that if support price remained at last year’s level and just equal the cost of production, it would leave no business motivation for farmers to grow wheat. The government opted for an increase in the support price up to the level of Rs1,200 per 40 kg. This provided an incentive to farmers, who put one per cent more area under wheat than last year’s level.

Cumulative phosphate fertiliser use for the first three months of Rabi season has been reported at 313,000 tonnes, up by 19.7 per cent against the previous Rabi season. Field reports suggested a high usage of certified seed of wheat, and reported shortages in the market due to high demand in contrast to the last season. Higher application of inputs confirms the extra care of the crop by the farmers, in anticipation of high profits.

The most crucial input to contemplate any biological activity is water. Since 90 per cent of the wheat crop is irrigated, timely availability of irrigation water remains a decisive factor for realising a good harvest. During the last monsoon, Mangla reservoir remained unfilled at 1,207 feet against 1,210 feet. This translated into 11.3 per cent shortages in Jehlam-Chenab zone for Punjab in the present season.

However, the overall irrigation water supply from October to February increased by 1.2 million acre feet, compared to the previous season. Irrigation water shortage has generally been supplemented by rains in Rabi season.

Rainfall and temperature have a significant effect on wheat crop productivity. The ongoing season is an appropriate one with regard to receiving rains. It received around 13 rains of varying intensity from December 2012 to March 2013, spread over almost the entire country. This kept moisture available at critical wheat growth stages at all times, and ambient temperature in the cool range, which is required to support a high biological yield of the wheat plant.

The government will make procurement at the announced support price through provincial food departments and Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation. Experience shows that small farmers seldom receive the announced support price. They have to sell their produce at Rs100 to 200 less, due to defective marketing mechanism.

A very important factor, among others, is the condition of supplying wheat to the procurement centres in bags, which are issued through involvement of revenue department officials. Connivance of food and revenue departments makes the process hectic and troublesome for small farmers. This provides an opportunity for the influential middleman, who can manage to get the gunny bags from the officials. In this situation, small farmers have no choice but to sell their produce at reduced prices, leaving their profit margin further squeezed.

To facilitate the wheat market, it is a must to eliminate the system of gunny bags by converting the present house-type godowns to modern silos.

Wheat supply and value chain is a multifaceted phenomenon. Every actor has to play its due role at each step, while leaving the rest to nature to ensure indigenous food security for the masses.

— The writer is Chief of Food and Agriculture, Planning Commission of Pakistan.