WASHINGTON: Global oil demand will grow slightly less than previously projected this year and next, the US government forecast on Tuesday, as the weak economy weighs on demand in developed countries.
The Energy Information Administration trimmed both its 2011and 2012 world oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 barrels per day from its previous monthly estimate. In the first of three global reports on world demand this month, the EIA said 2012 demand would be 89.52 million bpd, and 2011 demand would be 88.13 million bpd.
“China and other emerging economies account for most of the projected crude oil and liquid fuels consumption growth through 2012,” the EIA said in its monthly short term energy outlook.
Oil supply is expected to grow fastest in non-OPEC countries, with the United States - which is experiencing a boom in unconventional oil output in North Dakota and other places - leading the way. The EIA forecast non-OPEC production will grow 1.2 million bpd in 2012 to average 53.3 million bpd.
US production of liquid fuels is now expected to grow 240,000 bpd in 2012, up 90,000 bpd from last month's forecast, to 10.28 million bpd. Canada, China, and Colombia are each expected to increase output at an average annual rate of 100,000 bpd or more, the forecast said. Brazilian output next year should rise 190,000 barrels as it expands offshore production.
Crude supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries should slip slightly in 2011 after having grown 700,000 bpd in 2010, and grow only slightly next year, the EIA said. It expected OPEC crude supply to average 29.7 million bpd in 2011 and 29.81 million bpd next year.
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