WITH almost 4,000 people killed in violent confrontations and under mounting pressure from the international community, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad is following in the footsteps of his former Libyan counterpart, and if he is not careful, may end up with a similar fate.

Assad’s regime has been ruthless in crushing its opposition. In the past two weeks over 100 people have been killed in Homs alone, the third largest city in Syria. Four hundred people have died nationwide this month and the whole country is teetering on the brink of civil war.

Thankfully, the Arab League has finally grown teeth and is using them to puncture holes in Assad’s blanket authority. On Nov 2, the League put forth a set of proposals that called for the release of political prisoners, the withdrawal of security forces from the cities and permission for outside monitors to enter the country.

Assad, who freed only a few hundred prisoners, chose to ignore all other conditions, infuriating League members and instigating Syria’s suspension from the League on Nov 13. To add fuel to fire, he allowed supporters to attack the missions of Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, further alienating its members.

The Syrian regime, expecting criticism from the US and European Union, was caught off guard when its support among neighbours abruptly crumbled. The vote to suspend Syria in the 22-member Arab League was unanimous except for Lebanon and Yemen. Turkey, its largest neighbour to the north, openly called for reform and currently hosts Syria’s political opposition, the Free Syrian Army. Algeria and Sudan, usually supportive of dictators, voted against him. King Abdullah of Jordan, known for his neutrality, and Saudi Arabia, internationally the most influential member, were both vocal in their opposition.

The Arab League on Nov 16 gave Syria three days to cooperate or face economic sanctions. The regime, expert in stalling tactics, said that “in principle” it accepted the League’s proposal of sending in 500 military and civilian observers. Their insincerity became apparent when they proposed changes such as their involvement in choosing the observers.

Unsurprisingly, the League rejected the amendments on Sunday, stating that they impinged on the core of the Arab peace plan.

Though the Arab League is unlikely to impose a full trade embargo on Syria it may use targeted sanctions to further isolate the country. Syria’s economy, already fragile, is projected to retract by two per cent this year. Manufacturing has been disrupted due to violence, trade has fallen and countries like Turkey have imposed sanctions. Most detrimental so far has been the EU’s embargo on oil, which makes up 20 per cent of government revenue and 40 per cent of its export earnings

The Arab League has the power and resources to further squeeze the regime. With over 50 per cent of Syria’s non-oil exports sold to Arab countries and hundreds of millions of dollars pouring in from Arab development funds, Assad might find himself in trouble. A ban on banking transactions and investments could help to persuade the powerful business community to abandon their support of the regime and pressure on Syria’s private banks, which the regime uses for its own dealings, would make it increasingly difficult to finance its operations.

Much of the international community is backing the League’s actions and condones sanctions against Syria’s regime. A UN resolution that condemned violence in Syria, would have paved the way for economic sanctions had it not been for Russia and China’s veto. Russia’s ties to Syria, that date back to the Soviet era when it provided military aid to Damascus, still hold strong — Moscow sold $3.8bn of weapons to Syria just last year. European nations, undeterred, are now exploring another route that would condemn the current regime.

Though Assad has been spared for now, support among his powerful allies at the UN, China and Russia may be wavering. The Arab League’s suspension of Syria could nudge China to reconsider its position as it would be reluctant to oppose its Arab trading partners. If China is swayed, then pressure on Russia will be immense.

Though members of the UN are seeking ways to further pressure the Syrian dictator, it is unlikely that Nato will intervene as it did in Libya. The situation is far more volatile; ethnic and sectarian tensions, underlying alliances with Hamas and Hezbollah, and Syria’s proximity to Israel, are very real dangers that could destabilise the region.

Without outside military intervention, the opposition will have to bear the brunt of Assad’s brutality, but with mounting international pressure and economic sanctions, they could bring down the regime. It is clear that Assad’s days are numbered. “The conflict will continue, and the pressure to subjugate Syria will continue,” he told a newspaper, “Syria will not bow down.” Syria may not but Assad will have to.

The writer, a development economist, is currently working as a freelance journalist in New York.