“DO you know what`s been my biggest political mistake,” a visibly bitter Nawaz Sharif asked during a telephone conversation on Wednesday morning. Then he himself went on to give the answer “It was my decision to trust Asif Ali Zardari.”

The surprised phone call from the PML-N leader, while he was driving towards Abbottabad to address yet another public rally, came as the Punjab police stepped up its campaign of raids and arrests in an attempt to round up opposition and rights activists on the eve of the lawyers-led `Long March`. “If they think they can deter us by such harsh measures, they are certainly mistaken,” a confident Sharif said.

“Our struggle is for the rule of law, and it will continue until victory.”Of course his speech at the rally a few hours later was more direct and yet another frontal attack on President Zardari, who the PML-N chief has consciously tried to single out as the fall guy. Mr Sharif also described the latest opposition campaign as a `defining moment` in the `people`s movement` to bring about a change in the country. Earlier he had referred to protest campaign for the restoration of deposed chief justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry as a real revolution.

Such rhetoric is not new to Pakistani politics. Almost everyone who has been in the opposition has used such language to rundown a sitting government, with or without much justification. But this time things look a bit different. Too much appears to have happened in the last few days to make many people believe that the blunders committed by the PPP government, or the president to be precise, may have triggered a chain of events that might be difficult to control.

The latest of the many blunders is the unplanned, and totally senseless, crackdown on opponents. Rights activist Tahira Abdullah`s arrest and subsequent release in Islamabad is one such example. At the crack of dawn, dozens of police broke into her house where she lives alone and took her away to a police station with the plan to send her for 90 days to Adiala jail. It`s true that Tahira Abdullah remained in the forefront of the lawyers` movement. But then she has been a leading light in all the rights movements in the country and is a source of strength for anyone who believes in fundamental rights and liberty. That`s why when the news of her arrest spread, there was sheer panic in government circles and within a few hours she was out. The government`s incompetence in dealing with the situation was once again exposed.

However, the episode did not deter the police and administration in Punjab from going ahead with the crackdown, although there were signs that a sizeable section of the provincial administration was not very keen to carry out the governor`s orders. The case of the Gujranwala SSP is a case in point as he preferred being suspended but refused to obey the `illegal` orders to arrest opposition members on `cooked up` charges. The Sharifs too know that the public opinion, mainly in Punjab, and which also includes a large section of bureaucracy, is on their side over this issue. And they would certainly like to cash on it.

This is precisely what is worrying many in Islamabad, and also Rawalpindi. So it was not surprising to see the army chief, General Ashfaq Kayani, having a detailed meeting with Premier Yousuf Raza Gilani at the PM House on Wednesday. What transpired at the meeting was not known, and may never come out. But it`s not difficult to assume that it was mainly about the political situation, arrest of opposition activists and the threat to system`s stability, posed by some of the government`s actions on the eve of the of the protest march. The last time the COAS met the two top government leaders, a beaming prime minister announced in the National Assembly that the presidential ordinance for the establishment of mobile summary courts to punish opposition agitators would soon be withdrawn. The orders to undo the ordinance followed the same evening. This time the prime minister did come to the Senate after meeting the COAS but did not participate in the debate about the police crackdown, and left it to Rehman Malik to defend the government`s position. But then this too was a clear indication that Premier Gilani was not prepared to justify what many believe is unjustifiable.

The anticipated turmoil has also disturbed many in Islamabad`s diplomatic corps. British High Commissioner Robert Brinkley reportedly met both the prime minister and the interior adviser, not only to discuss the prevailing situation, but also to express reservations on the mass arrest of opposition activists in the country.

US Ambassador Anne W. Patterson seemed to have a slightly different agenda. Her most visible meeting of the day was with PML-Q chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, who has suddenly emerged as a key player in making or breaking the game for President Zardari. Again it`s not clear what transpired behind the close doors at Chaudhry`s residence in Islamabad. But for the ambassador of a country, whose key interest is in ensuring political stability for the sake of better focus on the war on terror, it`s better to have the status quo.

Many believe the security establishment is extremely annoyed with the president`s decision to nominate his close buddy Farooq Naek for the post of Senate chairman. This is also of the main reasons why Chaudhry Shujaat was being pushed to file his nomination papers for the post. The election of the Senate chairman, who is also number two in administration`s hierarchy, will indicate who is winning the political roulette that is currently being played in Islamabad.

The situation is indeed quite fluid. President Zardari`s gamble is not paying any dividend. If he had thought that by imposing governor`s rule in Punjab, and using Governor Salman Taseer to win over opposing members to form a government in Lahore, would be easy, recent developments may prove him wrong.

And Nawaz Sharif is riding a tiger which has the capacity to go out of control. If all this is making the permanent members of the establishment, i.e. the military commanders, anxious, it`s quite understandable. But as unpredictability remains order of the day, the next 48 hours may determine which way the wind is likely to blow.