The United States and General Pervez Musharraf, the best of friends, have done what on their own the people of Pakistan could never have. They have ensured the strong showing of the religious right - the six-party alliance, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) - in the recent elections. With 45 seats in the National Assembly, majority support in the Frontier and the largest presence in the Balochistan assembly, the MMA has emerged on the political scene with a bang.

This is not how it was supposed to happen. Remember that by cracking down on religious extremism and inveighing against the evils of madressah education General Musharraf was supposed to be taking Pakistan into the 'global mainstream', whatever this meant. He was supposed to be making Pakistan safe for a 'liberal' future. And smack in the centre of these beguiling notions comes the march of the MMA. Where did our calculators go wrong?

Well, in these elections the Islamic parties were the only ones to learn the lessons of pragmatism. That is why, sinking their doctrinal differences, they got on to a single platform - Deobandis, Barelvis and Shias drinking from the same cup. As if this was not enough, they were the only ones who had something to say. They were the only ones talking issues - denouncing the Americans and their works in Afghanistan and calling for the withdrawal of American troops from Pakistani soil.

The religious right spoke to a receptive audience for feelings against America's highhanded tactics in Afghanistan ran high in the Frontier and Balochistan, the two provinces bordering Afghanistan. Only the congenitally foolish would have failed to see this. Or failed to put this factor into their computers. The MMA triumph is thus not fortuitous. It was coming and needed only an opportunity to express itself, something provided by General Musharraf's doctored elections.

Compare the issue-driven campaign of the MMA with the vacuous and spineless conduct of the other parties and this triumph looks all the more inevitable. Forget about Musharraf's B team, the Q League. It campaigned on nothing except official patronage because it had nothing else to go on. But take the other parties - the PPP and the PML-N. Did they have anything to say? Any issues they brought up? None spring to mind.

On the central question of the American presence in Pakistan or the way Pakistan was press-ganged into joining America's 'war against terrorism' both parties remained locked in silence. For fear of offending the Americans of course because the belief is still strong among Pakistan's traditional political class that the path to power in Islamabad passes through Washington.

Consider the charisma factor too. It is hard to think of any political beauty contest in which the MMA leaders - Qazi Hussain Ahmed, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Maulana Shah Ahmed Noorani, Maulana Samiul Haq, Allama Sajid Naqvi - will be picked as the front-runners. But compared to Makhdoom Amin Fahim and Raja Zafarul Haq - the two figures who in this election respectively led the PPP and the PML-N - these religious leaders emerge as models of charisma.

Throw in Leghari and others like him into the equation too and the balance of charisma still weighs heavily on the side of the clerics. Which gives the startled onlooker an adequate measure of the excitement on offer in these elections.

Lest anyone think the religious factor is a passing phenomenon in Pakistani politics, it is here to stay. The greyness of the military regime and the intellectual bankruptcy of the 'liberal' parties will ensure this. This is another one the nation owes General Musharraf. The very thing he was supposed to destroy has come to haunt and perhaps mock him at his own table.

For three years he and his propaganda apparatus vilified the mainstream parties. For more than a year his intelligence outfits refitted and retooled the Q League. Their efforts have paid off to the extent that the nation has been rewarded with a split National Assembly and a fractured mandate. But out of this witches' brew has also sprung the genie of the religious right.

Inter-Services and Military Intelligence, which together constitute the real election commission of Pakistan, deserve to be applauded for this outcome: another consequence they could not have foreseen. 'Unintended Consequences' could indeed be the subtitle of the definitive history of Pakistan that has yet to be written.

Who thus stand out as the godfathers of the MMA? Hold your breaths. General Tommy Franks, the Centcom commander under whose imperious command Pakistan carried America's bags in Afghanistan, and General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's stricken MacArthur. Why stricken? Because these polls were meant to buy insurance for him. Instead they emphasize the confusion surrounding his rule. Of what use his three years at the helm? What has he really achieved? What was the point of his coup d'etat? What stability, let alone prosperity, has it brought in its wake?

Please also consider the talent on offer. Leghari, Jamali, Amin Fahim, Shujaat Hussain: the stoutest heart quakes at this roll call of the brightest this land has to offer. Compared to them the clerics are box-office material. At least we know where they stand. They are being forthright about things ranging from the Constitution to the American presence. But what about the pseudo-liberals chained to the altar of ambiguity and expediency? The religious leaders at least have faith. The pseudo-liberals have nothing except an abiding faith in their ability to come out on top no matter what the wishes of the Pakistani masses. Is there an entity more sorely tried than the Pakistani masses? The quacks it has to put up with.

Anyway, welcome to the land of the Islamic option. Across the Muslim world the failure of politics has meant a turning to the safe haven of religion. From Morocco to Indonesia, the failure of secularism has meant the rise of religious parties. We are now seeing this phenomenon emerging in Pakistan. No longer will the comforting truism hold that the religious right is an electoral irrelevance. These elections have proved otherwise.

The PPP has done well in the elections but that is not the point. It has vacated the ideological high ground which now stands occupied by the religious right.

When you sow the dragon's teeth don't be surprised at what you get. The Ayub regime gave us the politics of secessionism, the true father of Bangladesh on this reckoning being Field Marshal Ayub Khan. The Yahya regime presided over the break-up of Pakistan. General Zia distorted Pakistani politics and gifted the nation the poisoned chalice of Afghanistan. Musharraf has pushed Pakistani politics further to the right. His spin masters said these elections would bring in new faces. Do they realize how true their words have turned out to be?

Who'll be prime minister? Does it matter? Jamali or Leghari or any other self-important politico: one or the other, how will this affect the nation's health? The ongoing manoeuvres in Islamabad are not about power, which is too grand a prize, but crumbs from Musharraf's table. Will the new prime minister, whoever he is, be able to change the contours of foreign and economic policy? Will he be able to say boo to General Franks or the IMF? If not, then what are we talking about?

The political parties, even the winners, are in no position to force the issue. They can only share power with Musharraf, that too on his terms because he continues to hold the trump cards. And Musharraf's terms for power-sharing, whether spelt out or not, are a coalition with his very own Q League. Anyone wanting a share of power will have to join forces with this creation of the ISI. There is no other way.

The power-sharing on offer is thus a tainted exercise promising to compromise whichever party falls for it. If the PPP or the MMA wish to guard their chastity, or what there is of it, they'll have to sit on the opposition benches. Embracing the Q League will signal their readiness to sell themselves for so many pieces of silver.

About the MMA it can be expected that it will stick to some semblance of principle. About the PPP I am not so sure because Ms Bhutto has given more than one indication that she is ready to cut a deal with the military provided she is allowed safe passage back into the country. Will the military oblige her? A lot depends upon how desperate she is.

As for the PML-N on whose doomed ticket I contested this election and lost (by a very narrow margin, if I can console myself), it must bide its time on the opposition benches. Let no one think the game is over. It is just beginning. General Franks to please note.

Opinion

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