AS the early Kharif season approaches, an alarming picture of water shortage has been presented by a technical committee. Against a project demand of 107MAF, the water available will be 95MAF, one of the largest gaps in recent memory. This shortage raises the prospect of large-scale crop loss, particularly for cotton which is the country’s most important Kharif crop. There will be little water storage as a result, leaving all irrigation requirements to be met through river flows alone. The bulk of the decline in the flows is anticipated to come from the Jhelum river, which could fall to a 42-year low. The committee is correct to recommend that the matter be raised with India through the platform provided by the Indus Waters Treaty, especially considering that all other rivers are projected to be at normal flow. If it is true that the Jhelum’s water flows are declining so fast, then it needs to be ascertained whether or not the hydrological infrastructure built upstream by India is playing a role. Equally, it could well turn out to be a climate-related phenomenon. The Met department expects an early warming of temperatures this summer; this coupled with the fact there was decreased snowfall in winter, will depress river flows.

Beyond simple geopolitics, the projections also highlight the extreme vulnerabilities of our agriculture to variations in river flows. This means all aspects of our water economy need to be carefully considered to mitigate this weakness — from the extraordinarily high water losses of 40pc, to the low levels of water storage available in the country, and certainly to farm-water utilisation practices. The agriculture sector is accustomed to water availability of 112MAF in the post-Tarbela period, and sharp shortfalls below this level call for immediate action. The most serious attention must come in the form of a revamped water policy that takes into account not just improvements in the supply of water but also in its utilisation. This is a matter that must rise above politics, and the water policy under consideration should seek far-reaching reforms that focus on farm practices as well as more effective management of water command areas. Irrigation water is one of the crucial life-giving elements in Pakistan’s economy, and it serves as a foundation for our larger economy and food security. Urgent attention to correct its vulnerabilities is required.

Published in Dawn, March 24th, 2018