WHAT seemed inconceivable until Nov 8 has now become a reality: having won a stunning, historic election, Donald Trump is the new president of the United States of America. It is without doubt an anxious time for much of the world. The unconventional election campaign of Mr Trump created much uncertainty that the two-month transition failed to resolve. Indeed, the capricious, almost whimsical nature of Mr Trump’s pronouncements, many on Twitter, have often contradicted his own cabinet nominees’ comments. Chaotic is almost an understatement in describing President Trump’s path to the White House. Flawed as Barack Obama’s presidency was, at least at a personal level Mr Obama and his family brought great dignity and poise to the White House. A thoughtful president with a widely celebrated and universally popular spouse, Michelle, the occupants of the White House until yesterday morning, set an admirable example of progressive, inclusive leadership. Whatever history’s judgement on Mr Obama’s presidency, the Obamas were an undeniable inspiration for millions across the globe. Barack and Michelle Obama’s post-presidency public life will be watched closely by many.

Now, though, is the era of Donald Trump. Assessing its potential is fundamentally complicated by a disconcerting reality: even now, 19 months since the most blinding exposure imaginable, it is not quite clear what Mr Trump stands for. Many of the new president’s cabinet nominees are hard-core conservatives, but it is not clear whether Mr Trump will, in fact, embrace a radical social and economic agenda. Nevertheless, some of the damage is already apparent. For better or worse, the US has been a global leader when it comes to rights-based, liberal democratic values. The actual record may be decidedly mixed, but at least when it comes to promoting progressive, inclusive, democratic values, the US has been a self-professed leader. That may no longer be the case as an ethno-nationalism takes hold in the US and the slogan of ‘America first’ is interpreted internationally as every country for itself. The absence of a strong voice for progressive, inclusive and democratic values internationally may have all manner of consequences, few of which will be good.

Regionally, a Trump presidency could have alarming consequences. From Mr Trump’s loose talk about nuclear proliferation to possibly starting a trade war with China and from India’s perceived determination to make itself indispensable to the US to the new president needing to chart his own course in Afghanistan, the challenges are significant. Will terrorism come to define Mr Trump’s presidency as it did George W. Bush’s? Or will Mr Trump end up as the worse combination of his immediate predecessors: — between Mr Obama’s seeming desperation to steer clear of a full-blown war overseas and Mr Bush’s apparent eagerness to stoke conflict? Never before has the adage ‘hope for the best and prepare for the worst’ seemed more relevant.

Published in Dawn, January 21st, 2017