Ties with Trump’s America

Published November 11, 2016

INTO the void of uncertainty that is the policy outlook of US president-elect Donald Trump, has stepped Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

In congratulating Mr Trump on his election victory, Mr Sharif has struck a sensible note: recognising the essential democratic nature of his soon-to-be American counterpart’s victory; noting the long-standing relationship between the two countries; and mentioning the need for the US and Pakistan to work together for the common causes of peace, stability, security and prosperity in this region.

Yet, there ought to be a clear-eyed understanding of the potential challenges ahead. The American voter has installed in power a US president and Congress that are neither drawn to the idea of deepening ties with Pakistan nor necessarily willing to continue the old ways of doing business between the two countries.

With Mr Trump, the major concern is obvious: he may choose to see Pakistan predominantly through an Indian, or perhaps even Afghan, prism.

The vexed issue of hyphenation — Pakistan on some issues wanting to be considered in the same policy breath as India and regarded separately in others — has long bedevilled the Pak-US relationship.

Complicating that issue are at least two factors. First, there is a government in India that may not only see a natural ally in Mr Trump, but could move quickly to try and cast Pakistan as a common rival of India and the US. Second, Mr Trump’s campaign rhetoric on China and his need to perhaps reassure the world about some policy continuity could translate into a quick embrace of the current Indian government’s priorities.

Certainly, the triangular Pak-India-US relationship is not a zero-sum game and Pakistani policymakers should not fall into the trap once again of viewing it so.

However, policymakers here should prepare for both possibilities — that a Trump presidency may seek to positively influence the Pak-India relationship, help defuse regional tensions and possibly nudge India towards addressing the Kashmir dispute, or that it may veer towards seeing Pakistan as a problem rather than part of regional and international solutions.

Vital as the White House may be in steering US policy, the role of Congress should not be disregarded. With Republicans controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate, Pakistan could be set to face more difficulties there.

The US Congress has in recent years seen a growing hostility towards Pakistan among its ranks and some congressmen have already achieved notoriety with their vocal and visible hostility towards this country. Policymakers and diplomats here may have contributed to the problem with their lack of outreach to Congress, but policy tensions go potentially deeper than simply trying to improve the interfacing between the two sides.

The US is a vital country for Pakistan’s security and prosperity; policymakers here must approach the months and years ahead sensibly and with sensitivity.

Published in Dawn, November 11th, 2016

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