THE PTI’s planned siege of Raiwind marks the return of conflict to the area where the battle raged at its most intense in May 2013. It was Lahore which the PML-N was so jealous about. The Sharif camp was extremely anxious to not lose ‘their’ city to the new challenger and as a measure of their eagerness to secure Lahore it was no coincidence that so many of the election-rigging allegations then had their origins here.

Then there was so much effort on the part of the PML-N to deny Imran Khan a seat from the city, his hometown. It was a foregone conclusion that Imran would eventually return here to search for a revival of his political campaign against the government. Indeed, some of his supporters today say that he should have come earlier. But now that he is here, he will find it extremely difficult to convince his followers that he has the road map to get out of it with some visible gains.

The feeling is that the PTI might have delayed it for far too long. Already people are talking about the general election in 2018, and a change otherwise looks more unlikely than it did when Imran was charging on Islamabad a couple of years ago. The emphasis in political commentaries is increasingly on allowing, even if grudgingly, the Sharifs to complete their terms.

The growing consensus about how the government is poised to complete its term is best reflected in how the PTI has lost the support of some of its close allies in the run-up to its adventure in Raiwind. It is revealing how even those who were least moved by the protestation of the long besieged Islamabad residents in a couple of years ago have suddenly rediscovered the convention that bars the civilised from marching on someone’s home.

The growing consensus about how the government is poised to complete its term is best reflected in how the PTI has lost the support of some of its close allies.

Chaudhry Shujaat Husain is absolutely right when he mildly admonishes the PTI for targeting Raiwind but his stance is liable to be seen in the context of the prevalent mood in the establishment. So consistent has been his presence in the establishment’s camp.

Likewise Tahirul Qadri. The only difference is that with his references to how it was not his tradition to attack homes, the Allama does manage to invoke the gory images of the attack on his workers outside his Model Town complex in June 2014.

The old allies are waiting, keeping the option of a lateral entry into the mix open. As to what could inspire the likes of Qadri and Shujaat Husain to rejoin Imran Khan on the street, the thought raises most disturbing spectres. The reunion, according to all kind of scenarios being discussed at present, can only happen if and when the PTI appears to its reluctant friends to have advanced forward to a point where it can deliver a decisive punch to the government. Reaching that stage — according to theories informed by events in history — could involve violence.

For the moment though the distance the old ‘natural’ allies are keeping from the PTI is costing Imran Khan. Much of his appeal during the Islamabad dharna and before was due to the real or perceived patronage he enjoyed from the military establishment. Those who were backing him then as the army’s horse would be found wondering now why the allies, who also solicited the same patrons, have chosen to keep a low profile as Imran prepares to take another shot at the PML-N.

The perception that he was at the head of a combine that the military sympathised with did help Imran Khan win followers. He didn’t mind the labelling back then and his party could have presented a much stronger case in Raiwind had it managed to retain the image of a saviour which had the trust of the powerful fed up with old parties such as the PML-N and the PPP. But that image is so difficult to retain after the PTI’s ‘separation’, even if momentary, from Tahirul Qadri and Shujaat Husain.

What may, however, give hope to Imran Khan is that just as he readies himself for an advance on Raiwind, some other groups and parties are showing signs of warming up for some exercise in the streets.

The farmers, who have been caught up in a vicious cycle of low yields and low prices for many seasons, are threatening to bring their protest to Lahore. The Jamaat-i-Islami continues with its public contact drive, with its emir reportedly promising roti kapra aur makan to people at a meeting in Sialkot. The PPP is trying at last to find out how much of its old self remains in Punjab and has announced rallies for late September.

These political parties may explain that they are essentially looking at the 2018 general election. Yet any student of politics would know that they are keeping their options open. Whereas they may believe that there is not going to be any change — at least not before 2018 — they are still sufficiently wary of Imran Khan’s ability to spring some kind of a surprise. One purpose of these warm-up public overtures of theirs is to create an impression that they are part of the big anti-government movement even if they are not one with Imran Khan.

The main opposition thrust still must come from the PTI chief — which is how it has been right since the 2013 election. The issues have only become more complicated with time even when Imran Khan has kept the title of opposition leader. Whereas he was always expected to return to Lahore, he must come up with a strategy that not only keeps his support beyond Raiwind but which is also able to bring back all those who have been disillusioned by the length and unfruitful nature of his journey so far.

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Lahore.

Published in Dawn, September 23rd, 2016