AS potato sowing nears in Punjab, farmers’ early hopes are positive for the crops’ production and trade.

After two years of financial grilling, they hope, though still cautiously, to be compensated to some extent in the coming season. Their optimism has reasons.

Firstly, hit by a glut in the market for the past two years, many small farmers have opted to sow other crops. This may impact the overall production, reduce supply and stabilise the market. Because of bumper crop, the prices had fallen to Rs2/kg at the farm level in 2014-15.

The second factor that creates optimism among farmers is the upcoming infrastructure in the core potato belt. In the last few years, many washing houses and spraying process setups have cropped up in central Punjab.

Now, the crop can be treated and put directly in the reefer, which means freezing its quality at a certain point, right in the cultivation area — thus sending the crop almost directly from the field to the export market. Though these setups are not still enough in numbers to treat the entire export, they are coming up fast and facilitating the process.

The third factor, of late, that has given some glimmer of hope to farmers is the rising prices of potato in the market. In the last few weeks, it has recovered to Rs40/kg in the retail market in urban Punjab.

The second factor that creates optimism among farmers is the upcoming infrastructure in the core potato belt. In the last few years, many washing houses and spraying process setups have cropped up in central Punjab

Though farmers still say that the current rise was only benefitting middlemen who stocked potato for a few months and growers had long sold it. In any case, even if the farmer was holding it in the cold storage, he was paying roughly Rs7/kg as storage cost. The farmers might not be making money on potatoes right now, but the increasing prices certainly give a psychological boost to the trade.

The fourth factor that farmers think could work in their favour is the Pakistan’s potato finding a stable niche in its traditional market. Better tuber quality has helped potato find permanent place in the Middle East and Central Asian markets. These markets are big enough to absorb substantial amount of the vegetable to keep the domestic market stable, unless, of course, India has a bumper crop and floods the same markets with its produce. Even in that case, a crop failure in any country of the region could help Pakistan’s exports. The overall situation is thus looking up.

Some farmers also fear that the availability of quality seed may drop compared to the previous years and affect production. The agricultural department officials, however say, Pakistan needs over 50,000 tonnes of seed and only 10pc of which is imported anyway. They are hopeful that average target of sowing 400,000 acreage would be achieved.

Hit by a glut in the market for the past two years, many small farmers have opted to sow other crops

Farmers’ cautious approach is, however, necessitated by two factors. Firstly, it is still too early to predict things with complete certainty — though clues are hopeful. The helpful weather conditions, which make better germination possible, also add to the growers’ confidence in the next crop.

Secondly, the growers’ fear stems from the government’s policy to keep the prices of essential commodities like potato down for urban consumers through administrative means. But “the government does not interfere in order to bring doctors’ fee down or asks lawyers to charge their clients less; why does it interfere in pricing of agricultural commodities?” asks Dr Afzal Haider — a potato grower.

Farmers are gathering for their annual meeting in the last week of September in central Punjab to plan the crop according to emerging trends.

The Potato Growers Association, along with multinationals (working in the seed and fertiliser sector) and the University of Agriculture (Faisalabad) get together to train farmers in the latest seed developments, application of balanced fertilisers, plant pathology and overall handling of the crop.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, September 19th, 2016