In the dying days of the year, nature seemed determined to put a damper on traditional festivities in various parts of the world. There have been floods in Britain and parts of Latin America, tornadoes in Texas and elsewhere in the US, and floods as well as bushfires in separate parts of Australia.
Extreme weather events are broadly linked to the phenomenon blandly known as climate change. Flat-out denialists are a diminishing breed, but even among those who reluctantly accept that the overwhelming majority of scientists are not simply making it all up as part of a vast conspiracy against neoliberal capitalism there are some holdouts against the notion that human activities have contributed to global warming.
There can be little, doubt, though, that the key disasters of the year now ending were man-made in every respect, or that there is anything vastly different in store for 2016.
The key disasters of 2015 were man-made.
Syria, naturally, stands out as a prime example in more than one respect, as a core contributor to disarray not just in the Middle East but in Europe as well. It was, after all, her unexpectedly welcoming stance on the refugee influx that presumably secured for Angela Merkel the accolade of Time magazine’s Person of the Year.
Germany was also a prime protagonist, though, in the ultimately successful tussle to thwart the popular will in Greece. There is a degree of irony in the fact that whereas Greece remains the main conduit for refugees making their hazardous way from Turkey to the European Union, many of Germany’s allies in the drawn-out battle of wills against Athens are vehemently opposed to giving involuntarily displaced Syrians, Iraqis or Afghans a second chance in life.
It is also noteworthy that the worst offenders in this category are states and territories that were components of the Soviet-dominated Warsaw Pact until barely a quarter of a century ago. The Hungarian regime of Viktor Orbán has been particularly vicious in its response to the influx, describing it as “looking like an army”, and the Czech Republic’s Miloš Zeman has lately added his voice to the far-right tirade by dubbing it “an organised invasion”.
Even within Germany, where Chancellor Merkel has moderately modified her open-arms response, Dresden, once a component of East Germany, is a leading source of backing for the neo-fascist Pegida movement. And in neighbouring France, in the wake of terrorist outrage in Paris, the far-right Front National firmed up its electoral support, even though its hopes of securing absolute majorities in regional elections were set back by Socialist-conservative collaboration.
Russia, meanwhile, has been unreceptive to refugees, but its unprecedented military intervention in Syria has changed the dynamics of the conflict in that country, while at the same time restoring Vladimir Putin’s status as a key player on the world stage, which had been jeopardised by the shenanigans in Ukraine.
It is significant, though, that a diplomatic process on Syria is now proceeding in parallel to military actions, although it’s far too soon to say whether it will bear tangible fruit. The year ahead will be crucial in that respect, as in so many others, ranging from the fate of the European project to the outcome of the US presidential election.
In terms of the latter, the outrageousness of Donald Trump has succeeded to some extent in veiling the perversity of most of his fellow contenders for the Republican nomination. Despite his popularity among hardcore Republicans, though, it is far from clear whether he will emerge as the candidate. On the other side of the largely imaginary fence, Hillary Clinton’s candidature is relatively more assured, even though it is not entirely inconceivable that the anti-Wall Street contender Bernie Sanders may yet spring a surprise.
As party elections go, one of the most hopeful surprises this year has been the emergence of Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the British Labour Party. As a dedicated socialist and internationalist he inevitably faces an uphill struggle both within his party and in the broader political realm. It would be unwise to write him off just yet, though, as a prospective prime minister, notwithstanding almost universal media hostility. This month’s inconclusive Spanish elections, after all, underlined a sustained anti-austerity mood among crucial segments of the European electorate. And in Greece, Syriza won two elections this year despite overwhelming media scepticism.
The militant group that calls itself Islamic State continues, meanwhile, to dominate the global agenda. But it appears to have suffered significant setbacks lately in both Syria and Iraq, notably in its reported loss of Ramadi.
On the other hand, in Afghanistan, the Taliban have been hammering away in Helmand, and its ultimate fate will likely offer a pointer to what lies ahead. Whether Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise visit to Lahore was, in the Afghan context and others, anything more than a token gesture is among the mysteries likely to be unravelled in 2016.
Published in Dawn, December 30th, 2015
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