THE low expectations betrayed a relationship that appears to be either in further decline or frozen in mutual mistrust.

But yesterday’s meeting between prime ministers Nawaz Sharif and Narendra Modi in Ufa, Russia, produced several specific breakthroughs that must surely be welcomed in the context of a deteriorating regional security and diplomatic climate.

The headlines will focus on Mr Modi accepting the Pakistani premier’s invitation to attend next year’s Saarc summit in Islamabad and if the visit does take place, it would be worth a great deal of symbolism at least, given that Mr Modi’s predecessor Manmohan Singh was unable to visit in his 10 years as prime minister despite ardently wanting to.

There is reason to hope the visit will actually take place because Mr Modi has made furthering regional relationships, especially with Saarc countries, a foreign policy priority, even if that approach has thus far tended to exclude Pakistan.

A refusal to attend the Saarc summit would also deal a significant blow to the organisation, setting it back even further. Yet, there is, as always, many a slip between cup and lip in the India-Pakistan relationship.

Much though may depend on what progress is made on at least three of the steps announced yesterday in the joint statement.

Read more: Indian PM Modi accepts invite for first Pakistan visit: joint statement

Sartaj Aziz’s trip to New Delhi to discuss matters related to terrorism has the potential to end in acrimony and finger-pointing — or it could produce a change in tone and tenor on regional security affairs and terrorism.

Pakistan has rightly been alarmed by increasing Indian verbal aggression and there is much to be discussed in terms of state-sponsored and non-state actors creating trouble for the two countries and indeed Afghanistan.

The decision to focus on how to further the Mumbai-related anti-terrorism trial in Rawalpindi and the mention of specific potential evidence such as the provision of voice samples is also a positive shift from the status quo, which has essentially involved India demanding that Pakistan do more and Pakistan claiming that the trials are in limbo because of India’s non-cooperative approach.

Finally, the ‘early meetings’ between the DG Pakistan Rangers and DG Border Security Force followed by a meeting of the two countries’ DGMOs could help ratchet down the tensions along the Working Boundary and the LoC. The ongoing tit-for-tat violence along the Working Boundary in particular has gone on for too long and needs to be dealt with sensibly.

As ever, progress in the India-Pakistan relationship depends on whether the political leadership is invested in it.

Prime Minister Sharif clearly is, but has not demonstrated the ability to convince other institutions, particularly the army, of the imperative to improve ties. Meanwhile, Mr Modi has actually done the opposite of seeking to improve ties.

Both sides need to demonstrate they aren’t talking just to show the outside world that they are.

Read more: Back in Pakistan, opposition leaders unimpressed with Modi-Nawaz icebreaker

Published in Dawn, July 11th, 2015

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