THE annual party conference is a peculiarly British political event. Over two days, party grandees address the faithful gathered from across the country. Earnest speeches spell out the direction the leadership has charted to retain or gain power. In short, it’s a tedious jamboree that excites nobody except a handful of pundits and policy wonks.

Except when the event precedes national elections by barely six months, as the recent round of party conferences has done. For decades, Britain has been a two-party state with Labour and the Conservatives taking turns at forming the government. But this changed in 2010 when a hung parliament resulted in a coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

Unaccustomed to such a power-sharing arrangement, politicians and the public alike expected it to collapse as tensions between two opposing ideologies burst were exposed. But despite occasional spats, the two parties have almost completed their tenure, and now approach the elections due in May 2015.

However, the compromises needed to stay in harness together have damaged the Lib-Dems more than they have the Tories, and Nick Clegg has been personally damaged by the brutal realities of power sharing. There is every indication that his party will be badly mauled next year.

In fact, much has changed across Britain’s political landscape over the last five years. One major winner has been Ukip, the United Kingdom Independence Party, led by Nigel Farage, a consummate, charismatic politician. Playing on fears about unchecked immigration from new East European members of the EU, Farage has caused ructions among the Tories by introducing two MPs who have deserted the Conservative Party to join Ukip. Under British electoral laws, they have had to resign their seats, and contest by-elections on Ukip tickets.

This highlights the fears of a large-scale flight of Tory voters to Ukip next year. Many older white supporters disagree with David Cameron’s advocacy of EU membership despite the freedom of movement between members that has enabled hundreds of thousands of East Europeans to work and settle in the United Kingdom. These voters are the ones Farage is now actively wooing.

But they aren’t the only ones contemplating switching parties: traditional urban working class Labour supporters are increasingly fearful of rising numbers of migrant workers. These East European new-comers are perceived as competing not only for work, but for housing and social services. The Labour Party, of course, is firmly pro-EU, but is having a hard time convincing its traditional support base of the benefits of EU membership. Many are expected to vote Ukip next year.

Unfortunately for Labour, its troubles do not end here: in the aftermath of the failed referendum over Scotland’s independence, the ‘Yes’ campaign has turned its sights on Labour for having supported the Tory unionists. Gordon Brown, in particular, is a hate-figure for having galvanised the ‘No’ campaign. So the Scottish National Party is poised to grab a number of the 40 seats Labour currently has in Scotland.

Compounding Labour’s problems is the personality deficit of its leader, Ed Miliband. Poll after opinion poll shows him trailing behind David Cameron and even Nick Clegg. Although fiercely intelligent and articulate, he comes across as a nerdy, humourless man out of touch with real people. So while Labour is slightly ahead in the polls, Miliband is personally an electoral burden the party will have to bear.

Another area of vulnerability for Labour is the perception that the Conservatives are better managers of the economy. This view was reinforced by Miliband’s bizarre omission of the deficit and how he would deal with it in his conference speech. Priding himself on speaking without notes or auto-cue, Miliband perhaps shied away from an uncomfortable topic subconsciously.

Whatever the reason, Conservative politicians and pundits have not let him forget the gaffe, hammering away at his refusal to discuss Britain’s most pressing problem. To add to his woes, Miliband also skipped over the immigration debate in the same speech. Even his most ardent supporters are at a loss to defend these suicidal memory lapses.

Whatever happens next May, it is virtually certain that no party will emerge with a clear majority. And yet, two-thirds of all voters say they don’t want another coalition government. No matter how disliked the Lib-Dems are by the two major parties, they are all too aware that they might have to do a deal with Nick Clegg, even though his party is certain to lose several seats in May.

Due to Ukip’s attraction in the eyes of anti-immigration Tory voters, many seats earlier considered to be solidly Conservative are now under threat from Labour. Thus, Farage is being accused by Tories of being a Labour vote-getter. As Cameron said in his conference speech: “The danger is that you might go to bed with Farage at night, but wake up with Ed Miliband the next morning.”

One issue to have emerged from the Scottish referendum is the question of greater devolution of powers to England’s cities and councils. In a panicky moment on the eve of the referendum, British politicians promised vastly enhanced devolved powers to Scotland, and now English politicians are demanding the same.

This will open up a major debate, delaying the transfer of powers to Scotland, thereby reinforcing the impression that those supporting independence were cheated of victory by false promises. This will in turn feed into the narrative of exploitation by London, and strengthen a future demand for independence.

So the big themes in the next election are likely to be the British union itself, as well as the European Union. And apart from Labour and the Tories, three other players are now competing: the Lib-Dems, Ukip, and the SNP. The variables may have multiplied, but it will either be the Conservatives or Labour forming a coalition government.

Published in Dawn, October 6th, 2014