Afghanistan deal

Published September 22, 2014
.— AFP file photo
.— AFP file photo

THE election deal secured in Afghanistan by the international community yesterday cannot really be called democratic, but at least it has given the country a chance to establish relative peace and stability.

Unhappily, three elections into a new era aspiring towards democracy, the Afghan electoral process remains hostage to back-room deals, powerbrokers and warlords. Without forgetting Pakistan’s own struggles with democracy over more than six decades, the most worrying part about the post-2001 Afghan political system is that it does not quite give an impression of being sustainable.

Know more: Afghan Elections 2014

If elections are to be a complete sham — the winner was announced yesterday by the Independent Election Commission chairman without even sharing a final vote count — and do not incrementally move towards the goal of transparency and fairness, then surely at some point behind-the-scenes powerbrokers inside Afghanistan may dispense with the façade altogether.

Without belabouring the point, much of Afghanistan’s governance travails over the past decade have been because the electoral system was betrayed to install Hamid Karzai as president the first time round and then betrayed a second time as Mr Karzai turned on his original benefactors to secure more and more power and perks for his political partners and himself.

Of what use is a so-called democratic system if it leads to the most undemocratic of actions? The international community and Afghanistan’s power elite have once again sacrificed principle to salvage the veneer of stability and forward movement. Having said that, the experiment to put into effect a national government with both Pakhtun and erstwhile Northern Alliance elements seems to be the only option worth trying.

At least the incoming government team will be led by the two men who Afghans have an overwhelming preference to be ruled by. Quite how president-elect Ashraf Ghani and possibly his number two, incoming chief executive officer Abdullah Abdullah, will get along in office remains to be seen. It is better though to have a peaceful settlement rather than chaos and civil war, as many of Mr Abdullah’s allies have been tacitly threatening.

The big issues that will confront the two men are well known, as is their priority. First, the post-2014 future of the international presence, led by the US, in Afghanistan will have to be quickly settled. Almost as important as residual troops in Afghanistan will be the international community’s financial commitments to the country. Second will be a serious push in the peace process with the Afghan Taliban, while ensuring that the Afghan National Security Forces do not cede too much terrain to the former. Third, relations with Pakistan and the problem of a porous border and militant sanctuaries on both sides of it. Fourth, Afghanistan itself, with the incoming government having to prove it can govern better than Mr Karzai. Together, these factors constitute a towering challenge.

Published in Dawn, September 22nd, 2014

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