Taha Siddiqui - Investigative Journalist

The success of the operation depends on how success is defined. The military, which is controlling the narrative and the operational aspects of Zarb-i-Azab, has repeatedly said that it will not allow anti-state elements to exist in this region.

From what we know, looking at the very recent past, pro-state militants like Gul Bahadur, the Haqqani Network and other such groups who fight outside Pakistan's territory also occupied space with these anti-state militants in North Waziristan.

There are multiple reports and on ground sources that suggest that the pro-state militant leadership escaped. In the recent visit to Miranshah arranged by the military, the commander stated the same about all Taliban leadership, which includes anti-state factions too. So if success means clearing the area, that will be achieved.

However, with majority of them escaping, the operation has already failed in my opinion. Continuing to have a soft spot for pro-Pakistan militants — especially in light of allowing extremist and militant organisations setting up relief camps for the IDPs of North Waziristan (which I reported on for Dawn last week) — it seems the military is yet to abandon its support for pro-Pakistan militants that it has historically used as a foreign policy tool.

The consequence of this policy has been the creation of the Pakistani Taliban and other such militant groups which now fight the Pakistani state. And if we target the consequences and not the root cause, success will be short-lived.

In the immediate short term, Pakistan may see a decline in terror acts but that is because they are scattered. But they will regroup, since they still enjoy sanctuaries not just in Afghanistan (as is always propagated by the Pakistani press) but also in Pakistan, especially in central areas of the country like Punjab and Karachi.