NEW DELHI: There was little difference between India’s mainstream TV channels and its bourses after a month-long general election came to a close on Monday and paved the way for what will be a punters’ rule until results are out on Friday.
Nearly all the four or five exit polls, rarely to be trusted, have given the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies a comfortable majority. Billions of rupees are said to be involved in betting and that itself seems to be a good enough reason to carry on with the business.
In 2004, however, the exit polls on the average gave 68 more seats to NDA than it got and consequently 36 seats less to Congress and 32 seats less to others. There is no doubt all the exit polls have been wrong, some less wrong and some others more wrong.
The 2007 exit polls in Uttar Pradesh is a classic example when predictions went wrong. Dalit leader Mayawati was given 140 odd seats in the exit polls but the Bahujan Samaj Party ended up with a simple majority in the 403-seat assembly.
And yet, importantly enough, the curtains came down on Monday on the marathon Lok Sabha elections with an all-time record high turnout of 66.38 per cent, as the final phase of polling covering 41 constituencies in three states replicated the trend of increased voters’ participation seen in the previous 8 rounds.
The overall turnout in all the nine phases of polling this year stood at 66.38 per cent, posting the highest in the history of Lok Sabha elections, surpassing the previous best of 64.01 per cent in 1984 in the wake of the assassination of then prime minister Indira Gandhi. The turnout in 2009 was 58.19 per cent.
The polling on Monday for 18 seats of Uttar Pradesh, 17 in West Bengal and six in Bihar was by and large peaceful, barring stray incidents of violence in North 24 Parganas district of West Bengal which left 13 people injured.
The highest polling was recorded in West Bengal, where stakes are high for the Trinamool Congress hoping to retain all the 14 of the 17 seats decided in the last phase and gain a few more in its final push to position itself as a key player nationally post elections.
Bihar registered the second highest turnout in the last round with 58 per cent, followed by Uttar Pradesh with 55.29 per cent.
The turnout in Varanasi, one of the the most high-profile constituencies where Narendra Modi is pitted against AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal and Congress’ Ajay Rai, was pegged at 55.34 per cent.
After the five-week Lok Sabha polls concluded, exit polls by TV channels suggested that the BJP-led NDA would rout the Congress and come to power when results are announced at the end of the week.
The exit polls said that the BJP, led by its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, would register its best electoral performance while the Congress, which has ruled the country for a decade as the head of the UPA, would fall to a record low.
The CNN-IBN-CSDS poll pegged 270-282 seats for the NDA as against 92-102 seats for the UPA. India TV-C Voter gave 290 seats for the NDA as against 107 seats for the UPA. Times Now-ORG put the NDA at 249 and the UPA at 148. It gave other parties 146 seats.
The exit polls telecast by CNN-IBN and India TV suggested the BJP would record its best electoral performance by winning more than 200 seats compared to the previous best of 182 in 1998 and 1999.
The polls said the Congress is in for a serious setback with its tally falling below 100 seats. Its previous worst was 114 in 1998.
While the CNN-IBN-CSDS post-poll survey said the BJP would win 236 Lok Sabha seats (or between 230-242 seats), the India TV-C Voter exit poll gave the BJP 250 seats, bringing the party close to forming a government.
CNN-IBN-CSDS gave Congress 77 seats (or between 72-82 seats), while India TV-C Voter predicted 78 seats for the ruling party.
The surveys suggested that Uttar Pradesh would be the biggest contributor to the BJP’s kitty, with all predicting the BJP winning more than 40 seats of the total 80. While CNN-IBN-CSDS put the BJP tally between 45 and 53 seats in UP, India TV-C Voter projected 54 seats in the state.
The BJP’s gains in Uttar Pradesh indicate massive losses for the SP and BSP, with both failing to cross 20 seats. Both had 20 or more seats in the outgoing Lok Sabha.






























