The hope raised by policymakers is not a strategy. Challenges facing Pakistan are too complex and grave for a mindset which banks on tried and failed remedies to deliver.

Agonising tensions in the changing power structure are diverting the focus from the economy and accentuating business concerns. This is how the current situation emerges from informal discourse with businessmen and economists.

The centralisation of power and tilt towards orthodox ideas would not work and unrealistic projection of economic targets on the basis of injection of external resources will be hard to deliver. Pakistan needs a clear break from the past to focus on the future.

As long as the rule of law is flouted by the powerful elements in the establishment to regain their lost position in the swinging power structure, the chances of the country to emerge stronger and prosperous from the current all pervasive crisis do not appear promising.

Economic experts and leaders of business community air divergent views, depending on their interests and alignment with power pillars but all agree on the basics: people of the country deserve better.

The Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry waited for a week after the attack on a journalist in Karachi that triggered the latest cycle of civil/military friction. In the last week of April it issued a statement signaling its allegiance to the armed forces before others. The sentiment was stronger in Karachi where business leaders expressed frustration over Punjab-centric policies of Nawaz government and were critical of the culture of patronage in the current government policies.

“Yes, the IMF was inclined to support, Saudi money shored up reserves, sale of 3/4G telecom licences and expensive Eurobonds created some fiscal space but what about structural flaws. The tax machinery is ineffective. Whatever little is added in the internal resource generation is on account of new taxes (gas levy etc), loopholes in the net have not been plugged nor has the performance of tax collecting apparatus improved”, Dr Parvez Hasan, executive member of the Institute of Public policy commented in an chat with this writer in Karachi.

“The energy shortfalls are crippling. I trust the PML-N government wishes to improve the state of the economy and you see a lot of activity in Islamabad with Dar team rushing in and out of the country. In all fairness they have succeeded in stemming the trend of free fall but the revival of economy is a tall challenge and ad hoc measures can at best buy time but not resolve problems”.

Dr Hasan, an economist of international repute, who has been involved in compilation of annual reports on the state of Pakistan’s economy for the Institute of Public Policy will launch .the 2014 report next week. He firmly believes that exports will drive the growth in Pakistan like elsewhere.

“Pakistan needs to shed the conventional mindset. The heady concoction of technology and globalisation demands creative solutions. There are no easy short cuts. The path that needs to be covered needs to be covered. We will have to earn our progress like everyone else”, he said , referring to South Korea and China where he worked during his World Bank days.

Commenting on the talk in the corporate circles, a senior executive told Dawn that goodwill for Nawaz Government in Karachi is waning. “The big companies are not bothered by what they call ‘antics’ of power players in Pakistan. They do not see any real immediate threat to the system. They are concerned over the quality of appointments and vacant positions in many important institutions”, he said, referring to vacant top slots in some financial public sector bodies.

Former FPCCI President Chaudhry Muhammad Saeed was disturbed over the position taken by the apex trade body. “The elite in this country is irresponsible and opportunistic. They do not want to be seen, what they consider, on the wrong side of the divide. I think the current government has changed the fortune of the country. Look at the value of rupee, reserves, investment and the capital market. The numbers speak louder than words”.

Majyd Aziz did not share Saeed’s optimism. “The government might be trying but the results so far are not quite satisfactory. It is a fact that the business community gets to perform better under the military rule as the quality of governance is better. Policies and visions are of little use to us if the government focus is narrow and the industrial and the commercial capital of the country, Karachi, is not on the government’s radar”.

“For inclusive sustainable development Finance Minister Dar needs to induct some economists in his team to improve the quality of planning. They need to desist the temptation to reward loyalists with public assets, promote merit, learn to share power with others, broaden the tax net, resolve energy crisis, initiate reforms to promote work culture and competitiveness, and start treating the rest of the country at par with Punjab”, said another economist.