WASHINGTON: Everyone knows by now that Republicans have a major demographic problem: the party continues to struggle to attract non-white voters even as that segment of the electorate keeps growing.

But, a new study by the Pew Research Centre on millennials — defined as those between the ages of 18 and 30 — suggests that Republicans have another major demographic issue on their hands in future elections: young people are more liberal and are more inclined to support Democrats than the generations that have come before them. The findings suggest that millennials’ attraction to Democratic/liberal policies extends beyond the candidacy (and presidency) of Barack Obama.

Obama’s 21-point victory among 18-29 year-olds in 2008 — and his 16-point margin four years later — showed that he had an ability unique among politicians (Democrats or Republicans) to motivate and unite an age group that has been the perennial sleeping giant of American politics. But Republicans held out hope that without a historic figure like Obama leading the ticket, millennials would be back in play in 2016 and beyond.

A cursory read of Pew’s massive survey of millennials seems to suggest that those hopes have merit. Fully half of all millennials describe themselves as political independents, more than 10 percentage points higher than any other generation tested by Pew. Just three in 10 (31 per cent) said there was a “great deal” of difference between the two parties. President Obama’s approval rating among millennials has tumbled.

But, dig slightly deeper into the Pew numbers and it’s clear that the Democratic tendencies among millennials extend far beyond Obama. When millennial independents are asked which party they lean toward, 50 per cent say they either identify as Democratic or “lean” toward the Democratic Party. Just 34 per cent identify as Republican or lean that way.

Three in 10 millennials identify as liberal in their political beliefs, 39 per cent call themselves moderate and 26 per cent view themselves as conservative. That makes millennials the only generation with more self-identified liberals than conservatives.

More important — and ultimately more impactful, politically speaking — is how millennials feel about issues in the national conversation. Time and again, they come down on the more liberal side of those arguments. “Millennials stand out for voting heavily Democratic and for liberal views on many political and social issues, ranging from a belief in an activist government to support for same-sex marriage and marijuana legalisation,” according to a Pew overview of the data.

Nearly seven in 10 millennials (68 per cent) support same-sex marriage, a marked increase even from a decade ago, when 44 per cent backed it. Fifty-five per cent of millennials believe undocumented workers should be allowed to stay in the United States and have a chance to apply for citizenship. Fifty-six per cent of millennials believe abortion should be legal in most cases. On each of those issues, millennials’ views track far closer to the Democratic Party’s position than where the Republican Party — and in particular, its base — finds itself.

Just wait, the naysayers of this data on millennials will say. Everyone starts off liberal and gets more conservative as they age. It’s absolutely possible that it will happen, and it’s absolutely impossible to test — short of inventing a time machine and traveling to the future.

But, there are a few numbers in the Pew data that should give Republicans pause if they assume millennials will get more conservative as they get older. Forty-eight per cent of millennials say their views have gotten more liberal as they’ve aged — “aged” being a relative term since we are talking about people under 30 — while 42 per cent say their views have grown more conservative. When it comes to social issues, nearly six in ten (57 per cent) of millennials say they have grown more liberal as they’ve gotten older.

Those numbers are daunting for Republicans, but not determinative. After all, the party is on the verge of a major fight for its future direction — the 2016 presidential race, anyone? — and already there are voices within the GOP crafting a message that, given the Pew findings, could be more appealing to millennials than what Republicans have put forward in recent years.

Take Senator Rand Paul’s speech at this past week’s Conservative Political Action Conference. It was heavy on libertarian themes and suffused with a distrust of government. “We will not submit and we will not trade our liberty for security, not now, not ever,” Paul thundered. That’s a message that millennials will respond to — whether it’s delivered by a Democrat or a Republican.

—By arrangement with The Washington Post