ARGUABLY perhaps, The Prophecies which was published in several instalments between 1555 and 1568 has remained the world’s most popular, and the most controversial, best-seller of all times.

For the past half a millennium at the beginning of each year, dozens of books appear inspired by that oeuvre in various languages in different countries, predicting events supposedly in store in the coming months.

These publications are inevitably followed by other books trying to prove that Nostradamus played a hoax and that his prognostications do not hold, scientifically or rationally.

Michel de Notredame, born in 1503 in the southern French city of St. Rémy de Provence, studied French literature, logic and philosophy at the University of Avignon. At age 18 he suddenly switched his ambitions to medical science and for eight years roamed all over Europe learning to use plants to cure various diseases.

His new career coincided with the outbreak of plague in France and he settled down in Salon de Provence, a town not far from his birthplace, as an herbal physician.

Despite a successful medical practice and his marriage to a rich widow, who bore him six children, he was once again restless. His passion this time was the science of astronomy and, curiously enough, the dubious knowledge of astrology that deals with stars and other heavenly bodies influencing the lives of us mortals on this earth.

He went to Italy for the purpose and was so influenced by his new learning in Latin language that he changed his name to Nostradamus and began writing the book of prophecies for which he remains famous today and which has been translated into almost all the languages.

Catherine de Médicis, the wife of King Henry II of France, was impressed by his predictions concerning the royal family coming true; she invited Nostradamus to Paris where he remained until his death as physician and special counsellor to the queen’s son -the future King Charles IX.

For those who believe in him, Nostradamus wrote of events that would take place centuries after his death, like the Great Fire of London in 1666, the rise and fall of Napoleon as well as the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Centre and on the Pentagon in our own time.

The astonishing fact remains that there are no definite dates mentioned in the nearly one thousand quatrains of The Prophecies, a valid argument for Nostradamus sceptics. But his followers believe the details are so precise that one doesn’t need logical proofs to justify them.

Just to take a single example, they say, the prediction about Adolf Hitler goes something like this:

“From the depths of the west of Europe/ a young child will be born of poor people/ he who by his tongue will destroy great forces/ his fame will grow to the realm of the east.”

You may add to this illustrious list the Apollo moon landing in 1969, the space shuttle Challenger disaster in 1986 and the death of Princess Diana in 1997.

For Nostradamus fans this year’s predictions include the collapse of American supremacy over the international scene, the melting of the poles, widespread oil fires in the Middle East and, yes of course like every year, the end of the world.

Incidentally, nobody is so embarrassed by the everlasting Nostradamus myth as the French intellectuals. As a matter of fact a committee of academicians was set up in Paris in 1983 to do some research on Nostradamus’ handwritten notes and private correspondence still preserved in the national archives.

Following 10 years of hard work the verdict was: “There is no documentary evidence to prove Nostradamus had the foreknowledge of world events, though his work remains admirable for its literary quality.”

But that hardly puts an end to the controversy. Between fanatical faith in Nostradamus as a prophet and his summary dismissal by the intellectuals, there is a third lobby which believes things should be judged in their right historical context without prejudices.

They say in the sixteenth century soothsaying was an honourable profession practiced by learned men and one can see a lot of truth in Nostradamus’ predictions, if one judges them in the context of the time he lived in. Example:

“Young lion will conquer the old/ in singular combat, not war / eyes in golden cage will be crushed/ cruel death shall follow.”

The quatrain was written few months before a sporting tournament duel between King Henri II and the very youthful Count Montgomery on June 30, 1559, both combatants wearing signs of lion.

The Count’s lance accidentally pierced the king’s golden helmet, blinding him. He died 10 days later in great agony.

—The writer is a journalist based in Paris. ZafMasud@gmail.com