Political circus

Published December 29, 2010

EVERYTHING is in flux, until it appears that nothing may in fact be moving — that could sum up all the political 'action' the country has seen in recent weeks. Both the JUI-F and the MQM have quit the government, leaving it short of a majority in the National Assembly and yet few believe the government is in imminent danger of collapse. What is going on? Part of the answer: the perils of coalition politics. With the PPP about a third of the way from having a majority in the National Assembly, the role of the supporting cast is crucial, and that was always going to be fertile ground for uncertainty. However, in a welcome sign that perhaps Pakistani politicians have matured somewhat, not a single political player of any significance has suggested his intention is to remove the government or perhaps even derail the democratic process.

What is also becoming tolerably clear is that all sides are searching for some way of pulling back from the brink. Fazlur Rehman's dilemma appears to have had much to do with being caught between a rock and a hard place: Azam Swati, the sacked JUI-F minister who had a feud with the also sacked religious minister, uses his wealth generously to bankroll the party, making it awkward for the maulana to ignore his minister's fury. With Fazlur Rehman now calling for the head of the prime minister, who sacked Mr Swati, speculation has arisen that perhaps this is being done at the behest of the presidency, which is known to be unhappy with Prime Minister Gilani. What that would also indicate, though, is that the rupture with the PPP is far from permanent. In the world of Pakistani politics, it would not be a surprise if Mr Gilani soon paid a visit to Fazlur Rehman and his miffed minister, paving the way for the return of the status quo that was in place at the start of the month.

On the MQM-PPP front, too, there are positive signs. Sindh Home Minister Zulfiqar Mirza, who lit a fire under MQM-PPP tensions with his speech earlier this month, has publicly said he is willing to take a 'back seat'. While President Zardari is unlikely to accept a resignation from his Sindh home minister, a man many regard as effectively running the province, or force him to really take a 'back seat', Mr Mirza's public offer could be just the balm to begin to soothe MQM-PPP tensions at the moment. The sound and fury of recent weeks did signify something; but the most pessimistic predictions appear to be on hold, at least for now.

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