A CONTINUOUS supply of spurious and uncertified seeds, through legal and illegal means, is threatening the country’s agriculture as is evident from recent reports of pest attacks on cotton and rice crops in Sindh and Punjab.

Officials are reluctant to give even an initial assessment of the two main kharif crops-rice and cotton-because of reports of pest infestations from various parts of Sindh and Punjab. They were optimistic of harvesting a bumper crop of cotton and a good rice crop this season some time late in August and early September. But as days passed there were reports of damages to the crops from various parts of the two provinces.

These infestations are being attributed to the sowing of smuggled genetically-modified cotton seeds from India and Australia which initially showed good results and improved yield in Sindh and Punjab, but later reports of virus attacks started pouring from various parts. Same is the story of hybrid rice seed for which the farmers are being blamed for not following the rules of the game.

Whatever the reason, the fact is that rice crop is reported to have suffered damages in Jacobabad and Kashmore in Sindh and some other parts of Punjab including Sialkot. Genetically-modified and hybrid seeds need special handling and a management that demands professional skill. Handled professionally after getting a proper training and observing all codes, the plantation of genetically-modified and hybrid seeds give good results. But lack of it proves counter productive. And this has been the case here where there is no coordination between the federal and provincial agricultural agencies, and big farmers care little of rules and regulations.

Agriculture is nearly 23 per cent of Pakistan’s national economy and crops contribute 10 to 11 per cent. Any damage to major and minor crops has deep impact on the economy. Farmers are now reporting pest infestation to cotton and rice crops that apparently seem untreatable by application of pesticide. Experts are advising a biological treatment.

Needless to say that both rice and cotton are vital for country’s economy. Rice contributes 1.2 per cent of the GDP and is a main export item that fetched $1.20 billion last fiscal year. Damage to rice crop renders a large number of farmers pauper and many traders bankrupt. With eight to nine per cent share in the GDP cotton and textile is the mainstay of national economy. Total textiles export earnings last year was more than $10 billion, and it is expected to grow beyond $12 billion this year.

“We have observed certain pest infestations in Sindh and Punjab that were never seen before in the country, and these are included among weapons of biological warfare,’’ Chowdhry Iqbal Malhi, a farmer leader in Punjab, said on a foreign television channel in Pakistan on Wednesday evening.

Mr Malhi’s views were endorsed by farmers and officials in the Sindh Agriculture Department, who pointed out that seeds of crops, fruits and vegetables are being brought as personal baggage and are taken out of airports without any proper checks by the quarantine department officials. The officials of quarantine department are stationed at eight international airports mainly to check animals and plants being brought by incoming passengers.

“Seeds and many varieties of plants can be packed which escape checks of the officials at the airports in Pakistan’’ an official explained. The passengers take care of those who scan their baggage and manage to bring out their seeds and plants.

“On occasions even legally imported seeds are not subjected to necessary quarantine tests in which cause ailments that are untreatable’’ said an official.

Agriculture is a provincial subject, but the centre is not ready to give up seed certification and quarantine responsibilities to the provinces. About a year ago, the Sindh government had raised this issue with Islamabad on the plea that Karachi receives the largest number of visitors from abroad and Sindh government is in a better position to manage and monitor import of diseased animals and plants. Sindh government also proposed to include a nominee of the provincial agricultural department in the airport team and seed certification process. The federal government, however, refused to entertain the proposals. Preparations are afoot to make a move again after elected governments are installed some time next year.

Pakistan government’s target to achieve 7.5 per cent growth in the current fiscal year depends, to a great extent, on the results of kharif crops’ harvest. The three kharif crops - rice, cotton and sugarcane - are key factors of the national economy.

Reports on rice and cotton size are yet to be firmed up. However, officials and experts do not apprehend a big damage. There seems to be no doubts on harvesting a crop of 55 to 58 million tons of sugarcane. But the real problem is between the growers and the millers. “A rich harvest should bring price of sugarcane down to Rs65 a maund’’ argued a miller. But farmers say that price of sugar has gone up significantly and so has been the cost of input. Therefore, “Rs76 a maund is not a too big price.’’

Growers are confident to get a price of Rs76 a maund after elimination of zoning system and removal of inter- provincial movement of sugarcane. Sugarcane in Sindh has more fructose content and it is in demand by mills in all parts even though transportation cost quite a lot.

Crop size measurement remains primitive and tentative and therefore controversial. A recent example is of the wheat crop. Early in spring with the start of the harvest, the government assessed it at 24 million tons and finally settled down at 23.35 million tons. Fearing that it does not have enough storage capacity to handle such a plenty of crop, the government apparently in panic went for quick export. The export decision led to speculative buying and shortages. Millers then blamed the government of over estimating the crop size to push up the GDP.

With a weak crop monitoring and reporting system, an ineffective, unreliable and a low budget statistics bureau, the government’s claim of bringing down poverty ratio, pushing up per capita income, the GDP growth rates and curbing unemployment has been looked with scepticism. But more than this, the wrong assessment of crop size disturbs the market and results in price volatility.