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| September 10, 2007 | Monday | Sha'aban 27, 1428 |
Political developments set investment trends
DESPITE active profit-selling in banking and other pivotals, stocks last week maintained recovery drive boosted by reports that the Dubai talks on Musharraf-Benazir power sharing formula were are close to a deal as major irritants have been removed.
But Sharif brothers scheduled arrival on September 10 triggered a lot of selling on the blue chips counters and chipped away about 200 points or over two per cent from the market at 12,406.71. The KSE 30-share index also followed suit, falling sharply lower from early week’s highs.
Profit-selling at the fag-end of the week was attributed by analysts to political uncertainty and law and order situation that may follow after the arrival of the Sharif brothers.
Many analysts have doubts that the Musharraf-Benazir deal could end the prevailing uncertainty as some irritants are still there, which could work against it adding to the confusion.
Profit-taking at the fag-end of the week did interrupt the market’s sustained upward drive on rumours of dissolution of the assemblies to pave the way for a national government to oversea the general elections. But leading investors ignored it, while their weaker links did sell in a bit panic.
The KSE 100-share index shot up by another 192.45 points or 2.18 per cent at 12,406.71 as compared to 12,214.26 a week earlier, adding another Rs85 billion to the market capital. The KSE 30-share followed and was quoted higher by 202 points at 15,100.29 points.
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For the second week in a row, the market managed to wipe out a good part of previous losses both in terms of price flare-up and recouping of a good part of losses suffered by the market capital.
“If one goes by the positive market fundamentals in the backdrop of higher cash dividend and bonus shares, the future outlook appears quite bullish,” said Faisal A. Abbas, a leading analyst. But if one thinks of background news both on the political and law and order fronts, the situation is fraught with high risks”.
But some leading analysts doubt the proposed deal may not restore sanity to the prevailing political turmoil, as nobody could precisely predict “how the Sharif brothers’ factor fit in the deal”.
The nation is divided on various issues and it would be pretty difficult to achieve a consensus in the highly polarised atmosphere at this stage, they added. “But stock brokers have their own perceptions to peep through the future share business outlook and rely on short and long-term strategies to meet any emergency”, some others said.
The early buying euphoria pushed it as higher as 12,728.68 points but mid-week selling in some of the pivotals pushed it down to close lower.
Leading base shares, notably OGDC, National Bank, MCB, Lucky Cement, and Engro Chemicals witnessed another price flare-up, some of them having passed through their upper locks and enabled the index to recover the lost ground.
Analysts said the perception that the deal may end the prevailing political uncertainty was the chief inspiring factor behind the change in investor mood, including some leading foreign ones who could not resist the temptation of lower prices and rode the bandwagon along with the locals.
FORWARD COUNTER: Leading shares managed to finish with fresh sharp gain despite a heavy selling at the fag-end of the week, MCB, National Bank, Lucky Cement, Pakistan Oilfields, Pakistan Petroleum and D.G. Khan Cement were leading among them, which sustained the early week run-up.
—Muhammad Aslam.
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