Europe’s constitutional dilemma
By Shadaba Islam
GET ready for another long, painful bout of European Union soul-searching. After a year spent wringing their hands over whether to bury or revive the EU constitution following its rejection by French and Dutch voters last year, the bloc’s key policymakers appear to have made up their minds — to do nothing.
The confusing deal thrashed out by EU foreign ministers, who met for a much-publicised “brainstorming” session over the ill-fated treaty at a 12th century abbey near Vienna last weekend, effectively puts plans to resurrect the constitution on ice until at least 2009. Over the next year, EU leaders, ministers and their aides will continue to “reflect” on what to do next.
Significantly, they will also ponder over suggestions that the entire discredited constitutional project should be rebranded to give it more pizzazz in the jaded eyes of an increasingly eurosceptic public. But while EU policymakers like nothing better than worrying over solemn issues like the “future of Europe,” it is unlikely that another 12 months of fretting over the EU’s destiny will provide any extraordinary insights. The truth is that reasons for Europe’s current malaise are not difficult to find.
First, reinvigorating the EU and rebuilding public trust in Europe is not a prime priority for a number of the bloc’s leaders. Many like British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac, are embroiled in tough domestic problems.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is braced for trouble over plans to implement an ambitious economic reform agenda. Italy, under new premier Romano Prodi, may be back in the European mainstream but the new coalition in Rome is a fragile one. Small wonder then that most EU leaders have little time or appetite for EU affairs and prefer to leave the project to bureaucrats in Brussels.
But that is hardly a recipe for success since most ordinary Europeans are suspicious of the antics of well-paid EU officials and — despite efforts by European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso to woo them with new people-friendly initiatives — remain chronically uninterested in what they view as a boring Brussels-led enterprise.
Certainly, the morose state of Europe’s economy, mired in slow growth and high unemployment, is a key reason for lack of support for Brussels, which is perceived more as creating red tape than unleashing potential.
Other critics cite the EU’s ambitious expansion plans as a reason for falling public support for the bloc. Following its “big bang” enlargement from 15 to 25 countries in May 2004, several more newcomers are waiting in line, including Bulgaria and Romania, which are hoping to become EU members, possibly next year.
But while EU policymakers keep telling more and more countries, especially in the western Balkans, that Europe’s door remains open, they have failed to convince European citizens that bringing peace and prosperity to their poorer neighbours will, in the long-term, mean peace and stability in western Europe.
For many ordinary Europeans, therefore, enlargement remains a risky enterprise leading to the influx of low-cost eastern workers into western Europe and the relocation of companies — and the loss of jobs — from the old EU states to the newcomers.
Governments also remain confused over the future of the EU constitution. Broadly speaking there are three schools of thought: that the treaty should be adopted in its current form; that it be ditched; or that it be tinkered with and renamed to make it more attractive to voters. But most analysts believe there is no hope of unblocking the broader constitutional dilemma until after elections in France and the Netherlands next year.
German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier has promised that Berlin — which will assume the rotating EU presidency early next year — will produce concrete proposals in June 2007 on what to do next.
“There is absolutely no reason to give up on the constitution,” said Steinmeier in Vienna. But the German foreign minister also suggested that a change of name could help, given that the use of the word “constitution,” with its connotations of feared EU superstate was widely seen as fuelling opposition to the pact.
“In Germany, we live with a fundamental law which is not called a constitution but which has the same judicial value. I think it’s one of the points to develop,” he said, adding that the content of the treaty was more important than what the final text is called. “Substance is the key and form is less significant,” he underlined.
Luxembourg Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn proposed renaming the constitution an “EU Basic Treaty”. “What is important...is the project of living together,” said EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso. “If someone finds a better name, great. But what is important is to recommit ourselves to this vision of Europe.”
Steinmeier spotlighted 2009 as a deadline for getting the EU constitution into place, a pledge that many others appeared to back but which does mean that the current EU crisis of identity is likely to last for at least another three long years.
While repackaging and renaming the discredited treaty appears to be Berlin’s strategy to help sell the package of measures aimed at streamlining EU decision-making machinery, others are not sure the ploy will work. Even with a rechristened treaty, it remains unclear how France and the Netherlands will find a way to win public approval for a text which was stunningly rejected in the 2005 referendums.
The saga looks set to continue for several months, with EU leaders set to revisit the tangled issue when they meet in Brussels for their summer summit on June 15-16 and the European Commission coming up with an array of ideas to keep Europe ticking while decisions on key issues are put off until better times.
A key problem is that wrangles over the constitution are impacting on future EU expansion. Under current EU treaties, voting rules are only in place for a union of up to 27 member states. But any enlargement slowdown would hit Croatia which has said it wants EU entry in 2009 as well as other western Balkans states lined up to join the bloc. Negotiations for possible Turkish membership, which opened last October, are expected to last up to 15 years, making the issue less urgent for Ankara.
Many EU ministers said in Vienna that after the planned admission of Bulgaria and Romania in 2007 or 2008, further enlargement would have to wait until a new treaty was in force.
France, the Netherlands and Denmark are spearheading demands that the bloc’s “absorption capacity” be taken into account before admitting any new members to the elite club.
Despite French assurances that the criteria is “not an excuse to delay the process,” some EU states see it as a way of putting a brake on EU enlargement amid growing public disquiet over the grand EU expansion plans. Whatever their various positions, most EU capitals now agree on the need to define the concept more concretely: the European Commission is expected to produce a report on the issue at the end of the year.
“Absorption capacity is determined by two major factors: the transformation of the applicants into worthy member states, and the development of the Union’s policies and institutions,” said EU enlargement chief Olli Rehn recently.
There will be “no new enlargement” so long as the institutional limbo is not resolved, said Luxembourg Foreign Minister Asselborn. “The message for citizens is that we keep our promises, but that we are also strict on the criteria,” said Dutch Foreign Minister Ben Bot, lamenting that such rigour had “not always” been applied in the past.
Such demands raise a big question mark over whether the EU will ever expand beyond 27 members — with or without a new constitution.

