Facing up to the drought

THE country is threatened with another period of drought, as weather forecasters see no signs of any significant rainfall over the next two months. Water levels in Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs have already dropped to critical points. One cannot but agree with the ministry of food, agriculture and livestock’s agriculture development commissioner that the provincial irrigation departments and Irsa will have to do their best now to achieve the sowing targets for cotton, sugarcane and rice in the coming months. The meteorological department has warned that moderate drought conditions have already begun in Balochistan which are likely to worsen in the coming months and the developing situation could well affect at least one million people in Sindh and Balochistan by the end of June. It was only three years ago that the country had faced one of the severest of droughts of recent times. The dry spell had severely damaged crops, and livestock losses were very high. Balochistan accounts for 20 per cent of the national livestock and it had lost almost 50 per cent of its sheep and up to 40 per cent of its goats. Domestic milk production was down by as much as 80 per cent. Cereal production throughout the country had dropped, leading to an overall 20 per cent decline compared to the previous four years. Like the last time, the impending drought is likely to cause severe damage to the overall economy and suffering to the people.

But the government has been given a warning well in time and it should now be able to take appropriate steps to lessen the impact. During the last drought, inter-provincial relations had come under stress when the smaller provinces accused Punjab of not sharing the reduced availability of water pro rata and according to the water distribution formula (Punjab getting 55.94 MAF, Sindh 48.76 MAF, NWFP 08.78 MAF and Balochistan 03.84 MAF) of the 1991 accord. The government should avert a repeat of the situation by ensuring that whatever amount of water is available in the irrigation system, it is equitably distributed among the provinces. It should also strictly monitor the canal flows so as to reduce pilferage and stealing of water. It is important to speed up the task of lining of the canals so that seepages are reduced to the minimum.

The country is wasting at least about 50 per cent of the water available in the system in normal times by overuse at least in rice and sugarcane cultivation, and also by not adopting new irrigation techniques such as the sprinkle and trickle systems. It is also important to promote dual cropping as is done in many other countries. Provinces can make a major contribution to the national economy and to impoverished farmers’ incomes by encouraging them to practise inter-cropping. Productivity is intricately linked with efficient use of resources, water in particular, and that is not happening at this point in time. Drought is a natural calamity; one can hardly do anything to avert such disasters. But at least we have been warned in time by the relevant agencies, and the impact, if measures are promptly taken, can be kept to the minimum.

Unfair criticism

TWO more statements — one by a US official and the other by the Afghan foreign minister — have accused Islamabad of not doing enough in the war on terror. Surprisingly, both statements also grudgingly lauded Pakistan’s positive role in the drive against Al Qaeda. Mr Henry Crumpton, US ambassador for anti-terrorism, acknowledged that Pakistan had arrested “hundreds and hundreds” of Al Qaeda activists but said that it needed to do more, because parts of this country were a “safe haven” for militants and Osama bin Laden was hiding in Pakistan. Similar views were expressed by Mr Rangeen Dadfar Spanta, who has replaced Mr Abdullah Abdullah as head of the foreign ministry. Speaking to the media along with visiting Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot, Mr Spanta said that Pakistan had to do more, though on the whole his country was receiving “very strong cooperation” from Pakistan.

Those who expect Pakistan to “do more” seem to betray a lack of understanding of the intricacies of Pakistani politics and society and the hold of the tribal system on the border regions, which enjoyed a certain amount of autonomy even in the colonial days and were allowed to follow their own customs and traditions, including a legal system based on tribal mores. The tribesmen also have a tradition of resisting state authority where their traditions, especially of a religious nature, are under a perceived threat. From a military point of view, the mountainous terrain along the border with Afghanistan serves as an excellent base of operations for guerillas. Foreign militants have been in the area since the US-led ‘jihad’ against the USSR, and they enjoy support among some sections of the tribesmen. Yet Pakistan has captured key Al Qaeda figures, and this would not have been possible without Islamabad’s full commitment to the war on terror. In contrast, Afghanistan can hardly come up with the names of any leading Al Qaeda terrorists arrested by it. Those who say that Osama bin Laden is in Pakistan could perhaps be a little more specific and let us know precisely where he is hiding. In this age of electronic eavesdropping and satellite surveillance, perhaps the CIA with its sophisticated equipment could guide us.

The danger of AIDS

A TASK force on AIDS has come out with some alarming figures for HIV-infected people in Larkana and has confirmed the presence of the deadly virus in 118 persons. It is feared that this number could rise considerably if all the drug addicts in the area are tested for AIDS. This is a valid concern as more than 60 per cent of the 118 cases have been attributed to the use of shared needles. It is also worrisome that only two out of the 72 blood banks and laboratories in Larkana and Qambar-Shahdadkot districts are registered. A large number of drug users are professional blood donors, and their use of shared needles puts them in the high-risk group. With no checks on unregistered blood banks, which are least concerned about checking on the medical background of donors, proper blood screening is hardly ever carried out, with the result that dangerous pathogens — including the HIV virus — are often passed on to patients in need of transfusion.

The other factor leading to the spread of AIDS is aberrant sexual behaviour, mainly on the part of men who go on to infect their spouses, who in turn, pass on the virus to their unborn children. Along with greater public awareness of the dangers of AIDS, decisive action is needed to screen professional sex workers, as has been proposed, and also to regulate blood banks and laboratories. Earlier on, the Sindh Blood Transfusion Authority had been doing a good job of sealing errant blood units in the province. It must continue to do so unless blood banks and laboratories get themselves registered with the SBTA so that regular inspections can be carried out to ensure that the blood being given to patients is HIV-free. Unless the SBTA clamps down on deviant units, the latter will continue to endanger the lives of hundreds of patients.

Bulgaria’s entry raises concerns

THE Banya Bashi mosque stands in downtown Sofia, a vivid reminder of Bulgaria’s often-forgotten Muslim heritage. The last surviving mosque in Sofia is still in use, say the guide books. But when I tried to visit it recently, early on a Saturday morning, the doors were closed and the impressive building, believed to be designed in 1576 by Hadji Mimar Sinan, the leading Ottoman architect of the day, was in obvious need of repair.

The sorry state of the once-magnificent mosque is no surprise. The number of Muslims in modern-day Bulgaria stands at just under one million, representing about 12 per cent of the population. This is in stark contrast to the past when Muslims are believed to have constituted up to a third of Bulgaria’s population. Many fled in the wake of the collapse of the Ottoman empire and, later, were “encouraged” to leave for Turkey by Bulgaria’s communist rulers. Those who stayed were often forced to change their Islamic names for Bulgarian alternatives.

As Bulgaria races against the clock to try and make the January 1, 2007, deadline for membership to the European Union, its Islamic past is little more than an exotic sidebar to the multitude of other very complex issues facing the country’s leaders.

But at a time when Europe’s relations with many Muslim countries remain fraught, Bulgaria’s planned entry into the EU highlights the bloc’s slow but steady expansion into the Balkans, a part of the continent where centuries of Turkish rule have left behind an important Muslim minority.

While EU membership for Turkey does not appear to be on the cards for another 15 to 20 years, many in Brussels believe that the smaller Western Balkan states could be within the bloc much sooner. Once that happens, in addition to the current 20 million Muslims of “foreign” descent living in western Europe, the EU will become home to up to 10 million fully-fledged European Muslims from the Balkans, including Bulgaria, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia-Montenegro (including Kosovo), Macedonia and Croatia.

Interestingly, while many in Europe are still fretting and wringing their hands over the EU entry of Turkey as well as the increasingly assertive stance being taken by Muslims in Europe, few in the EU’s corridors of power have drawn attention to the Muslim minorities in the Balkans. Apart from a few cases of Muslims in the region being recruited by terrorist groups, including Al Qaeda, Islam in the Balkans is not seen as posing a “threat” to European values.

That’s just as well because the region faces a host of other hurdles as it struggles to meet EU membership standards.

Negotiations on a new cooperation pact — seen as a stepping stone to EU membership — have opened with Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia-Montenegro, although a meeting to be held with Belgrade has just been called off over Serbia’s failure to arrest fugitive war crimes indictee Ratko Mladic.

Membership talks have opened with Croatia and while Macedonia has been given candidate status, no deadlines have been set for launching negotiations. Most importantly for the immediate future, while both Bulgaria and Romania have been promised they will be allowed into the elite EU club next January, the EU has warned that the entry date could be delayed by a year if the two countries fail to stamp out corruption and crack down on organised crime.

Rumours are rife in Brussels that the European Commission, which is scheduled to give its opinion on May 16 on Bulgaria and Romania’s readiness to join the EU on deadline, may decide to wait until autumn this year before it gives its final verdict on both countries’ accession bid. However, the real concern in Brussels is that Bulgaria is falling behind in efforts to comply with EU demands.

As Austrian Foreign Minister Ursula Plassnik warned recently, “If Bulgaria wants to join the European Union on January 1, 2007, the remaining time must be used as productively as possible. In particular, it needs to make further efforts in the fight against organised crime and corruption and in reform of the justice system.”

A report commissioned by EU enlargement chief Olli Rehn recently delivered harsh words on Sofia’s record on matters ranging from people trafficking and prostitution to counterfeiting.

Specifically, the EU’s concerns are centred on Sofia’s failure to tackle organised crime, human trafficking and high-level corruption. Rehn is understood to favour the January 2007 entry date for the two countries, but there is perceptible opposition to this in the European Parliament.

The prime minister of Bulgaria, Sergey Stanishev, believes that the EU’s attitude towards the issue of further enlargement is markedly pessimistic. In his opinion, the commission is much stricter with candidates Bulgaria and Romania than it was with the candidates in the previous enlargement rounds.

EU views on how to deal with Bulgaria and Romania remain divided, however. The European Parliament’s rapporteur for Bulgaria, MEP Geoffrey van Orden, has warned that a possible delay in the country’s EU accession might send incorrect signals to the Bulgarian society and will “encourage some negative effects in the country.”

Conservative German members of the EU assembly argue that in order to maintain pressure for reform and change on Bulgaria, a final EU decision on membership should be delayed until autumn. But socialists in the EU Parliament say such a move could create a public backlash in Bulgaria and Romania against the EU and would not be fair on the new Bulgarian government which has passed a remarkable 60 laws in the eight months they have been in office.

EU foreign ministers meeting in Salzburg earlier this year raised another barrier to future enlargement by insisting that expansion also depended on the EU “absorption capacity,” a reference to public opinion and the perilous state of the bloc’s finances.

But Commissioner Rehn has warned that candidate countries have to be sure that they have a realistic chance of joining the EU — even if it is many years away — if reformist leaders are to convince their public that it is worth making enormous efforts to meet the EU’s conditions. “The countries cannot stay the course if the EU wavers on its commitments,” Rehn said recently.

Arguing that the Balkans region now has a real chance to move beyond the legacy of war, Rehn stressed: “This year is the worst possible time for the EU to go wobbly on its commitment to future enlargement — as some politicians and commentators have recently suggested.”

Realising that they have not done enough to sell the bloc’s current and future enlargements, the European Commission has been going out of its way in recent days to underline that the EU two-year old “big bang” enlargement into ex-communist eastern Europe is an “economic success” which has brought major benefits to the bloc’s old and new member-states.

Expansion has “acted as a force of modernisation” and is helping the EU to cope with increasingly fierce competition from Asia’s economic giants, China and India, the commission said recently in a study released to coincide with the second anniversary of the EU’s May 2004 enlargement.

“None of the doomsday scenarios have materialised. Enlargement did not create economic problems for the EU nor did it trigger massive migration flows,” said the report by the EU executive.

EU monetary affairs chief Joaquin Almunia said enlargement was helping the EU to cope better with global competition. “We all win, as citizens in new member states see their standards of living increasing...(and) companies in the EU take advantage of new business opportunities,” said Almunia. He added that EU companies were using enlargement-linked restructuring to become more efficient and more competitive on the world scene.

In a strong riposte to critics who say EU expansion has increased the financial burden on western governments, the commission said enlargement had boosted economic growth and trade and led to a rise in investments in the 10 new members. However, this had not been at the expense of the old western European members of the EU.

The study, drawn up by the commission’s economic services, said “enlargement has acted as a catalyst of dynamism and modernisation for the EU, helping the economies of old and new member states better face the challenges of globalisation.”

With average economic growth currently at 3.75 per cent between 1997-2005, EU newcomers had fared better than the old members which recorded only 2.5 per cent growth during the same period. However, with an unemployment rate of 13.4 per cent, jobless numbers in eastern Europe were still 5.5 per cent higher than levels in the West.

Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia joined the EU on May 1, 2004 in the bloc’s biggest expansion. But enthusiasm for further enlargement is waning amid growing fears that western companies are moving to low-cost eastern Europe, a process that the EU has termed “delocalisation.”

In another sign of continuing unease over the last EU expansion, Austria, Denmark and Germany have said they will maintain restrictions on the movement of eastern European workers into their territory.