ISLAMABAD, Sept 14: Pakistan's economy generally displayed positive trends -barring agriculture - during the last fiscal (2003-04) achieving a 6.4 per cent GDP growth led by a sharp pickup of manufacturing and construction sector.
On the downside, however, the agriculture sector's poor performance was broad-based both in major and minor crops as it grew by a lacklustre 2.6 per cent, far short of its 4.2 per cent target. The growth of this sector remained even lower than preceding year's 4.1 per cent and average growth rate of 4.54 per cent of the 1990s.
According to consolidated economic data for July 2003-June 2004 released by the ministry of finance on Tuesday major crops accounting for 34 per cent of agricultural value added, grew by 2.8 per cent against a 6.9 per cent rise in value addition for the last year and a target of 5.5 per cent for 2003-04.
Similarly, minor crops which contribute 12 per cent of value addition in agriculture grew by 1.7 per cent in 2003-04 against a growth target of 3.5 per cent and a slight increase of 0.4 per cent last year.
The livestock sub-sector, which accounts for almost one half of overall value addition in the agricultural sector (49 per cent), has witnessed a modest growth of 2.6 per cent in 2003-04 against the target of 3.0 per cent and an actual achievement of 2.8 per cent last year.
Wheat production is estimated at 19.558 million tons in 2003-04, as against 19.183 million tons last year, showing an increase of 1.95 per cent. Rice production is estimated at 4.848 million tons in 2003-04, as against 4.478 million tons of last year, showing an increase of 8.3 per cent. Sugarcane production has increased by 2.6 per cent in 2003-04, from 52.056 million tons in last year to 53.420 million tons in 2003-04.
Cotton production has however, decreased from 10.211 million bales in 2002-03 to 10.048 million bales in 2003-04, showing a decrease of 1.6 per cent. As regards the minor crops, the production of two major pulses - masoor and mung - have increased last year by 3.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent respectively.
The production of mash fell by 13.8 per cent. The production of potato increased by 1.8 per cent while production of chillies decreased by 2.5 per cent in 2003-04 over the last year.
Agriculture credit disbursement of Rs73.560 billion during 2003-04, is higher by 24.8 per cent, as compared to Rs58.919 billion over last year. The fertilizer off-take stood at 3,221.918 thousand nutrient tons in 2003-04 or higher by 6.7 per cent, as compared to 3,019.8 thousand nutrient tons last year.
The data noted a higher-than-targeted growth in real GDP (6.4 per cent) supported by excellent growth in large-scale manufacturing (18.1 per cent) and a robust performance in services; a strong rebound in investment, particularly in private sector investment; relatively low inflation and an investment-friendly interest rate environment.
The finance ministry also takes credit for an unprecedented increase in credit to the private sector; sharp increases in the consumption of electricity and gas reflecting rising levels of economic activity; a reduction in the fiscal deficit (3.3 per cent of GDP); above target collection of taxes; a buoyant stock market; a double-digit growth in exports and imports; workers' remittances maintaining their momentum with current account balance remaining in surplus for the third year in a row; FDI continues to exhibit rising trend; comfortable foreign exchange reserves position and a stable exchange rate environment; and a sharp decline in the public and external debt burden are some of the salient features of the current state of the economy.
INDUSTRY: The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) was targeted to grow by 8.8 per cent in 2003-04 but it surpassed the target by a fair margin and registered a broad-based growth of 18.1 per cent as against 7.2 per cent of last year.
GROWTH: The real GDP at factor cost was originally targeted at 5.3 per cent in 2003-04, with agriculture and manufacturing growing by 4.2 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively.
TAX COLLECTION: CBR has collected Rs518.8 billion for the last fiscal year which is higher than the original target for the year of Rs510 billion - 12.6 per cent higher than last year.
Direct taxes have increased by 8.8 per cent while indirect taxes increased by 14.5 per cent. Within indirect taxes, sales tax has increased by 12.3 per cent and customs collection is up by 30.6 per cent.
INFLATION: The rising trend in inflation rate witnessed during 2003-04 is because of increase in prices of some basic food items like wheat, wheat flour, beef, mutton, vegetable ghee and onion etc.
Food and non-food inflation have been 6.0 per cent and 3.6 per cent, respectively during 2003-04 as against 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent of preceding year respectively. Core inflation (non-food, non-energy) has also inched up to 3.7 per cent during 2003-04 from 2.6 per cent of previous year.
MONETARY SECTOR: Overall money supply grew by 12.4 per cent during July 01, 2003 to June 26, 2004 as against 17.4 per cent in the same period previous year. Money supply was targeted to increase by 11.1 per cent during the fiscal 2003-04. Weighted average lending rate has declined from 7.6 per cent in June 2003 to 5.1 per cent in June 2004 and further to 4.6 per cent by end July 2004.
STOCK MARKET: Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100-Index has moved up from 3,433 points on July 1, 2003 to 5279.2 points as on June 30, 2004, showing an increase of 53.8 per cent. The market capitalization increased from Rs754 billion to Rs1402.8 billion.
EXTERNAL SECTOR: Exports are targeted to increase by 8.4 per cent to $12.1 billion in 2003-04. Exports during July-June 2003-04 registered an increase of 13.8 per cent to $12.395 billion from $10.889 billion.
Exports of textile manufactures grew by 11.3 per cent but other manufactures registered an increase of 5.2 per cent, the prominent being the petroleum products engineering goods exports which grew by 29.5 per cent, and 35.0 per cent respectively.
WORKERS REMITTANCES: The remittances reduced to $3.871 billion in 2003-04 as against $4.237 billion of last year, a decline of 8.6 per cent.
FOREX RESERVES: Foreign exchange reserves stood at $12.326 billion as on end June 2004. It was $10.729 billion at end June 2003.
