KARACHI, March 4: Further fall in fortnightly arrival of phutti has dampened the hope of achieving the government’s estimated target of over 10.5 million bales this season (2002-03).

“If one would like to be precise, the current season’s cotton production would be much lower and may not even touch the 10 million bales target,” a leading cotton analyst said.

The official figures released on Tuesday, show that up to March 1, 2003, a nominal increase of 0.16pc in over all phutti arrival has been recorded over the corresponding period last year.

However, a drastic fall of up to 136,711 bales in fortnightly arrival of phutti strongly indicates that the leftover and unpicked phutti in the fields has almost dwindled to its lowest ebb. Only 61,378 bales has been reported to have reached the ginneries during the last fortnight (Feb 15 to March 1), as against 198,089 bales recorded in the same period last year.

Arrival of phutti in Sindh remained lower by 2.43 per cent at 2.206 million bales, compared to 2.261 million bales recorded in the same period last year.

Nevertheless, there is a nominal increase of 0.95 per cent in phutti arrival in Punjab where up to March 1, 2003, 7.439 million bales reported to have reached the ginneries, as against 7.359 million bales recorded in the corresponding period last year.

The fear of short crop has already skyrocketed raw cotton prices in the domestic market where it is being quoted above Rs3,000 per 40 kg. According to industry sources, the expanded capacity and BMR programme had increased the raw cotton requirement of the textile industry, which is being estimated at around 10 million bales.

During the period under review, the textile industry purchased 8.284m bales compared to 7.675m bales lifted in the same period last year. The exporters also lifted slightly more cotton this season at 129,126 as against 60,214 in the corresponding period last year. However, this season the TCP stayed away and made no procurement of cotton from the ginners.

Due to short crop and heavy demand lesser unsold stocks at 1.222 million bales are presently lying with the ginners as compared to 1.741 million bales in the same period last year.