KARACHI, Dec 4: If the flow of phutti from fields into ginners is considered a gauge to estimate the raw cotton production then the country is expected to have a bumper crop of over 11 million cotton bales this season (2002-03).

Contrary to the slow arrival of phutti recorded during the initial period of the season, the flow has tremendously improved since last two fortnights.

The official figures issued by Pakistan Cotton Ginners’ Association (PCGA) shows that arrival of phutti up to December 1, 2002, is higher by 6.43 per cent over the corresponding period last year.

The higher flow of phutti into ginneries produced 6.717 million of bales up to Dec 1, 2002, as against 6.312 million bales produced in the same period last year. Consequently, 0.406 million more bales or 6.43 per cent higher production have been recorded over the last season.

Despite the fact that phutti arrival in Sindh has started to decline owing to early start of the season, but the flow is still much above the annually recorded average.

On the other hand, arrival in Punjab, where cotton season starts a bit late, the flow of phutti is normally at its peak at this time of a year. During the period under review, 5.127 million bales are reported to have reached the ginneries in Punjab as against 4.719 million bales recorded in the same period last year, an increase of 8.64 per cent this season.

Against this, arrival of phutti in Sindh has recorded nominal fall of 0.13 per cent at 1.591 million bales compared to 1.593 million bales in the corresponding period last year.

For second time the fortnightly arrival of phutti remained on higher side as 52,320 more bales reached ginneries at 1.544 million bales compared to 1.492 million bales recorded in the same period last year.

With world cotton scenario not much encouraging and cotton experts’ forecast of a production gap of around 10 per cent against the demand, the country is, however, better placed in raw cotton this season.

According to textile industry sources, the expanded capacity and extensive BMR programme undertaken by the industry has enhanced its raw cotton consumption which is being placed over 11 million bales.

The textile industry has purchased over 4.831 million bales up to Dec 1, 2002, while private exporters lifted a nominal quantity of 8,805 bales, and the state-owned TCP continues to sit on the sidelines.