Stock market back on rails

Published August 12, 2002

The mid-week rally initiated by the revival of strong financial support and actively followed by the others, put the market back on the rails amid predictions that the worst may be over and now it is turn of a sustained,dividend-driven bull-run.

Mega issues, notably PSO, PTCL, Hub-Power and many others remained the centre of activity as investors were not inclined to miss the rising market, which ensures handsome capital gains not in a very distant future.

After a protracted spell of a terrible lull,the market, therefore, swung back into an active life last week as investors were back in the market lured by an attractive bait of lower levels and made an extensive short-covering .

An idea of buying euphoria may well be had from the fact that two terrorist attack on a Christian missionary school hospital,killing over a dozen persons did not deter investors to make fresh buying in the pivotals, notably the PTCL and Hub-Power followed by reports of higher earnings and enhanced dividend.

No one questioned the long unfathomed absence of investors but welcomed the advent of financial as well as general support amid hopes that the worst may be over and the market may be well on its way to establish new peak levels in the coming weeks.

All eyes are now focused on the corporate announcements by some mega issues, notably Hub-Power and some others. The interim working results and dividend coming in,notably from ICI Pakistan, Dawood Hercules, some of the second-liners in the textile sector including Janana De Malucho Textiles and Bannu Woollen signal a major corporate breakthrough and could well prove a stepping stone in the market’s upward journey in the coming weeks.

Investors welcomed the ICI Pakistan’s interim results, showing a profit of Rs260 million after a couple of lean years and extended active support hoping that the second half may be still better ensuring both capital gains and dividend.

The KSE 100-share index attained the coveted level of well over 1,800 points at 1,815.76 as compared to previous 1,779.40,pushing the market capitalisation to a respectable figure of Rs423 billion. The net rise in the index being 36.36 points or 2.5 per cent over the week.

After a month of low volumes including a record low of 17m shares in a single-session,the turnover figure swelled to a respectable total of 95m shares but still below the average daily to total of 100 million shares in normal trading sessions. There was no change in the background news.Rather there were negative reports of killing of 10 Hindus in occupied Kashmir. However,investors were guided by the technical factors in an oversold market and covered positions at the lower levels on all the counters under the lead of textile, sugar and energy sectors whose dividend announcements are due.

The intriguing lull was, therefore, broken as a late burst of selective institutional buying put the market back on the rails after a protracted bearish spell and terribly low volumes,brokers said.

All the pivotals participated in the run-up on strong general and financial support at the lower levels,which ensure handsome capital gains in a bull market.

“The run-up seems to have been initiated by Adamjee Insurance amid market talk that MCB group is cornering its floating stock to have a say in its management”, floor brokers said.

The buying support was so strong that it breached through the circuit breaker, leading the way for other blue chips to follow its lead and it was promptly picked up by some others including PSO. According to market sources the MCB group led by Mian Muhammad Mansha has, over the last two years,cornered about 40 percent of its floating stock and is planning for a hostile takeover after buying its floating stock.

In an identical hostile takeover bids, its 10.00-rupee share had touched the peak level of Rs.105.00 and Rs.70.00 a couple of years back as speculator joined to race for capital gains.

Opinions are,however,still divided over the future market outlook but some stock analysts predict the lean period may be over and consolidation forces are in to restore credibility to stock trading.Next couple of sessions will show how the market behaves.

Plus signs dominated the list,major gainers being Shell Pakistan, Century Papers, Clover Pakistan, Kohinoor Weaving, Adamjee Insurance, PSO, Pak Reinsurance and Wyeth Pakistan Arif Habib Securities, International Industries, Anwar Textiles, Dawood Hercules after an interim dividend of 55 percent, Ghani Glass, Abbott Lab, Kohinoor Weaving, PSO, Shell Pakistan and several others. The largest rise was, however, noted in Wyeth Pakistan, which rose by Rs10.00 to 20.00 in each session.

Losers were led by Spencer & Co, Al-Ghazi Tractors, Shafiq Textiles and New Jubilee Insurance, Attock Refinery, IGI Insurance, Glaxo-Wellcome Pakistan, Aventis Pharma, Shell Gas and Nestle MilkPak and some others.

Trading volume rose to 238 million shares from the previous weekly low level of 163m shares, bulk of which was contributed during the last three sessions of the week including 95 million shares on Friday.

Hub-Power, PTCL, PSO were leading among the volume leaders and accounted for 70 per cent of the total followed by ICI Pakistan, MCB, National Bank, Sui Northern, Adamjee Insurance, Engro Chemical, FFC-Jordan Fertiliser, WorldCall, Pak PTA and several others.

FUTURE CONTRACTS: After early weakness,speculative issues on the forward counter also rose in sympathy with their counterparts in the ready section. PSO was the top performer as gainers,while Hub-Power topped the list of volume leaders followed by PTCL, ICI Pakistan,notably after the announcement of interim profit, MCB and Engro Chemical, finishing on-balance steady amid active two-way trading.—Muhammad Aslam

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