Drought-like conditions, acute water shortage and pest attacks on crops cast a shadow on the mainly agricultural economy of Punjab already beset by the resource constraints.

Industrial activity, otherwise slow for quite some time, suffered a setback after the events of September 11 in the US when many importers refused to buy Pakistani products, including textiles, leather and leather made-ups.

However, the dry spell by causing reverses in the farming sector had dimmed hopes of an increase in the average agriculture growth rate of over 4.4 per cent. Agriculture being the mainstay of the economy, any setback to this crucial sector was bound to hit other sectors ranging from the services to job creation and consumer spending.

All the main crops— cotton, rice, wheat and sugarcane— are of primary importance and need extensive irrigation. Punjab was expected to face an unprecedented water shortage of 51 per cent during the rabi season which is worse than the previous year. The situation had deteriorated during the early kharif when the shortage of water increased which led to a row with Sindh over water distribution.

The total cropped area in Pakistan is estimated at 57 million acres, out of which 39 million acres are in Punjab. Drought has affected agricultural production and threatens to add to our difficulties on this score.

Sowing of wheat in canal- irrigated areas was less by 4.03 per cent than the corresponding period up to November last, largely because of water shortage and late harvesting of standing crops.

The Punjab government stopped irrigation water supply to around 60 per cent wheat cultivating areas to cope with the shortage.

The drought, however, had a severe impact on agriculture in the rain-fed areas. Moderate rain in December last, particularly in north-eastern parts of Punjab and Balochistan had a healthy effect on the wheat crop, but it was not enough.

Southern Punjab had excelled in wheat production last year but the crop languished in the region this year. In view of this situation, Pakistan, which produced a bumper wheat crop of 21.7 million tons last year, revised the production target from 20 million tons to 18 million tons.

Most cotton growers are facing a severe crisis after the crop was affected by pest attack. Although the official forecast of cotton yield was 10.6 million bales, reports from southern Punjab tell a different story. Unofficial estimates show that the size of the crop will be less than last year.

Due to this shortfall in production and depressed prices in early part of the season, growers suffered heavy losses. Cotton received up to 15th December was 14 less compared to last year’s arrivals by that date.

The cotton crop assessment committee had earlier scaled down its estimates from 10.8 to 10.4 million bales for the current season.

The committee acknowledged that due to the pest attack in Punjab and water shortage in Sindh, cotton production was likely to decline by 400,000 bales, mostly in Punjab.

On the other hand, the Kisan Board of Pakistan maintained that if water did not reach the southern parts of the province on time, the national economy might suffer a loss of up to Rs 30 billion on account of cotton alone. This would be in addition to Rs 100 billion loss already incurred through other crops. There has been a bumper sugarcane crop in Punjab this year which is likely to increase overall national production of refined sugar to 3.1 million tons.

However, mill owners gave a raw deal to the growers who had great difficulty in disposing of their stocks. They did not receive payment for a long time and when they did it was less than what was their due.

The problem of sugarcane production was compounded in view of the controversy raging over the permission to import sugar from India. The millers claim that they cannot sell the stocks they hold— 1.2 million tons— in competition with cheaper sugar imported from India.

Rice was the crop worst affected by the water shortage, prompting moves for shifting to other crops and improving water use efficiency.

The crisis in agriculture aggravated by the long-running drought has pointed to the grey areas inhibiting development of this vital sector in Punjab.

Despite the previous successes in growth in major cash crops, the province is a long way away from realizing its full potential in agriculture. According to a recent report, the trends in acreage in the Indian and Pakistani Punjab indicate that the average index in 1994-95 in the former increased to 291.2 from its base in 1950-51 as against the Pakistani Punjab index during the same period which increased to only 177.93.

In cotton, the performance of both Punjabs was almost the same. In wheat, India performed much better gaining an index of 453.94 as against 211.93 for Pakistan.

In this context, wide- ranging farm level measures to offset drought are required. Even when there has been surplus production in Punjab both the public and private sectors have been unable to keep pace with it.

This had resulted in marketing problems for farmers, as in the case of wheat last year, institutional corruption and windfall profits for middlemen. Farmers faced with fluctuating prices of farm produce and under pressure to repay loans have little option but to sell their produce at the prevailing rates and suffer as a consequence.

Although the government fixes support prices, it does not have the mechanism and resources to safeguard the interests of millions of small farmers.

In the case of cotton, the government had announced a support price of Rs 780 per 40 kilograms of phutti at the time of sowing. However, the price in the early season ranged between Rs650-700 and the small farmers suffered heavy losses.

The TCP intervention is a poor consolation since it depends on the middleman who rakes in the benefit, leaving a small part for small farmers who have no capacity to hold on to the crop until the government steps in.

Coupled with the increase in the prices of agricultural inputs after the imposition of GST frustration among farmers, particularly the small land-owners, has been growing. Many think that commercial agriculture is no longer viable. Preferably, in this context, wheat subsidies should be more targeted at the low income groups, and post-harvest crop handling and storage should be tackled through infrastructural development at the district level.

Marketing and crop quality calls for greater attention to provide better incentive to the growers. We cannot increase our exports to one billion dollars a month nor curtail imports growing at the rate of 10 per cent to bridge the trade deficit if this vital aspect is neglected.

The quality of agriculture produce is an important issue because WTO regulations require the export commodities to meet international standards. In terms of value added our major cash crops have not performed very well. In comparison, India has added value to its agricultural commodities, including rice, to make major inroads in the world market. Pakistan, on the other hand, is facing difficulty in exporting wheat due to low quality.

Pakistan also needs to increase its annual $120 million export of fruit and vegetables. If agricultural export processing zones can be set up where combined grading, packaging, quarantine and fumigation may be available, they can prove useful for the farmers. In other words, a standardization policy to improve the quality of farm produce is called for. Promotion of agro-based industries and rural industrialization for raising farm and non-farm income can also help agricultural development.

There is an expectation of $1 billion in exports if corporate farming is introduced. The State Bank of Pakistan was earlier reported to have agreed to fix the target for lending support from financial institutions in order to offer loans to corporate farming.

Corporate farming has been given the status of an industry and there is no limit on foreign ownership, the amount of investment and ceiling on holdings. Land has been offered for local as well as foreign investors for developing the farming sector. Its considerable potential in developing agriculture cannot be overestimated. But, involving extension in crop area and heavy investment it is a long -term option.

A more feasible strategy in view of the water shortage would be a conservation-oriented approach as well as adoption of new technology and reduction in the cost of production to meet food requirements.

There is lack of conservation practices and high demand for irrigation water due to increased cropping intensity. Compulsions necessitate changes in cropping pattern and adoption of conservation measures keeping in view the export-earning potential of major cash crops. Conservation brings benefits not only in terms of reduced water application, but also less consumption of fuel, better germination in salt-affected areas and less use of herbicides.

In the Indo-Gangetic plains, new ethnology has produced dramatic results. Wheat was sown over 8,000 hectares in Haryana (India) and 5,000 hectares in Pakistani Punjab using zero tillage method.

An important challenge in view of the ill-effects of pesticides would be to develop environment-friendly practices. Improved water management strategies are vital to maximize yields.

Farmers may cultivate cotton on more area than in the previous years to avoid water-intensive crops like sugarcane and rice. But there is no substitute to efficient irrigation practices. At the same time, water storage capacity has to be increased to tackle the problem on a long-term basis.