November 10, 2001	Saturday	Shaba’an 23, 1422

VIENNA, Nov 9: The Opec oil cartel is likely to cut production by up to 1.5 million barrels per day next week, possibly effective from as early as December 1, to boost slumping crude prices, an Opec source said on Friday.

“We’ve be talking about a figure of 1.5” million barrels per day (bpd), the source told AFP ahead of the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) next Wednesday.

“That would be the most likely figure,” he added, while adding that the ministers could agree to less, but only if they could get better commitments from member states to adhere strictly to quota ceilings.

“If the ministers agree on keeping a lid on cheating then they would head for a smaller cut, although not less than 1 million,” he said. “Maybe they would settle for less, maybe between 1.3-1.5 million.”

The 11-member cartel, which produces 40 per cent of the world’s crude and which has seen prices slump to two-year lows since the September 11 terror attacks, is likely to implement the cuts rapidly.

“It’s very possible that they will do the cut next month .. because I don’t think they can wait another two months,” said the source. Until recently it had been assumed any cuts would not be implemented until January 1.

Meanwhile key Opec ministers are continuing to lobby major non-Opec producers, notably Russia and Norway, to cooperate with the Arab-dominated cartel to boost prices.

Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi, the grouping’s kingpin, is to travel to Oslo and Moscow on the eve of the meeting, while Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh could also stopover in Moscow en route to Vienna.

“They will try to do some arm twisting,” said the source.

“Opec has to go ahead with the cut, but at the same time they will pray hard that the Russians come to their senses, and at least freeze production,” he said.

“I don’t expect them to cut any production, but maybe if they receive pressure from the Saudis and the Iranians, maybe we can have some sort of freeze on production from the Russian side.”—AFP