WARSAW, Oct 26: Global economic growth is likely to bounce back by mid-2002 after the September 11, attacks pushed the United States into the arms of recession and slashed demand in other countries, the OECD’s chief said on Friday.
The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is set to more than halve the 2002 growth forecast for its 30 members, according to draft figures for its November 20 projections release.
But secretary general of the economic think-tank, Donald Johnston, said the growth slowdown would not last through all of 2002. The OECD is expected to forecast a rebound in 2003 in its end-year outlook report.
Generally speaking, there is optimism about flattening out and recovery beginning by the middle of next year on a global basis, the Canadian secretary general told reporters before making a speech at a business school in Warsaw.
He said the forecasts due out on November 20 may still change before the release. But he refrained from giving further details on what would power the growth recovery.
Draft figures obtained by Reuters last week show the OECD preparing to cut growth estimates in all major countries as they struggle to buoy their economies in the aftermath of the attacks on the United States.
The US economy, which many analysts forecast is in recession now, is seen expanding by a mere 1.3 per cent in 2002 versus an April OECD forecast of 3.1 per cent. But the OECD is also seen forecasting a growth rate of 3.7 per cent in 2003.
The OECD’s 30 member countries are seen growing 1.2 per cent in 2002, down from an earlier projection of 2.8 per cent.—Reuters
