A NEW confrontation is brewing between the establishment and the PTI. This much was clear from the press conference held last week in Pindi, which followed the tweets from Imran Khan’s X account. The press conference and the support it got from the ruling party politicians later make it evident that difficult times are ahead for the PTI, especially Imran Khan.

For many, in fact, the exchange over the past few days does not bode well for Khan. There are warnings galore of how access to him will be restricted further and visits will be stopped altogether. No one expected a quick release for him earlier and this is perhaps now etched in stone. Those who feel confident enough to predict the future also speak of the May 9 trial, military courts and harsher punishments, but for an ordinary hack like myself, turning soothsayer is not easy. Let’s wait and see what happens if Khan is now entangled in more cases and more convictions.

However, the real challenge for both the powers that be and the PTI is KP. The two ‘sides’ (if one can describe them as such) were already at daggers drawn over the choice of the PTI’s new chief minister, which had led to talk of governor’s rule. And this talk has simply grown louder in recent days.

But the matter is not as simple as it is being made out to be by those who point to the legal and constitutional provisions allowing for such a step.

The real challenge for both the powers that be and the PTI is KP.

In KP, the party rules a province with a solid mandate and at a time when militancy grows in intensity with every passing day. The latter has been and continues to be a serious challenge for the state, not just in terms of the insecurity it causes but also because of what it has done to the public mood in the province. Unfortunately, it needs to be said again and again that the past military operations and the present rise of militancy has led to a chasm between the people of the province and the state. And along with this, there is little appetite for military operations in KP, which is a position the PTI also adopts.

Against this backdrop, the imposition of governor’s rule might lead to more problems than making it easier for the state.

Indeed, throwing the party out of power will consolidate its support base, while also further alienating an angry populace. The latter will not help in controlling militancy. And these are the more obvious downsides. Less talked about in the case of KP is the absence of political options, for there are few to no forces that can provide even a semblance of legitimacy or public support. Parties such as the ANP or the JUI-F are not very popular, while non-mainstream organisations such as the PTM seem to have lost steam.

But that is not all. The caretaker set-up in KP, after the PTI dissolved its previous government and assembly, did not govern all that well. There were more than just allegations of corruption, and fingers were also pointed at political parties that were part of the then PDM government and were indirectly and directly part of the set-up in KP too. Will they get another chance to rule KP if the PTI is to be kicked out? Governor’s rule will lead to questions about what other options there are in terms of politics and the impact this will have on the mood of the populace.

This is not to say that the state is the only player facing challenges. The PTI, too, is in a similar bind. With a government in KP, it will also have to come to terms with the establishment, be it for the sake of governing KP or to have access to Imran Khan. In the nearly two years since the 2024 election, it has not been able to mobilise its support base on the streets to get Khan freed. And the legal and judicial system no longer offers it any options.

So while it can blow hot and hotter in talk shows and its jalsas in KP, there is little else it can do. And if it cannot improve the governance in KP, the anger of its supporters, which had earlier been directed at Ali Amin Gandapur, will not spare the new chief minister either. And for this, it will have to learn to work with the establishment and the federal government.

In other words, sooner or later, the PTI will realise that it has to opt for dialogue, whether it decides to carry this out with the government or the others.

Unfortunately, this is easier said than done because of the mood prevalent on either side of the divide. Short of an unforeseen event that will break the stalemate, it is hard to envision why the stakeholders will sit down and talk. The establishment wants the PTI to keep quiet and cooperate while the latter wants Khan released and its mandate returned. What is the middle ground in this, which will allow the other political parties to also feel included?

Some suggest that there could be an agreement on an election date a year down the road, but why would this be acceptable to the PML-N, for example? And what guarantees can be provided that it would be a relatively fair exercise? Who can ensure this and why?

But this is a digression.

For now, the real challenge will be the confrontation between the PTI-led KP and the centre. Governor’s rule is no easy solution and the PTI is aware of this as is the centre. Chances are, the war of words will continue without any solution in sight.

The writer is a journalist.

Published in Dawn, December 9th, 2025