ISLAMABAD: The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United Nations, citing sub-seasonal models, has forecast above-normal rai­nfall along the Indo-Pakistan border in late September, with a possible recurrence during the last week of October, despite the withdrawal of the monsoon.

According to the FAO report on seasonal precipitation in the desert locust summer and winter breeding areas from October 2025 to March 2026, conditions are projected to become drier than normal in November and December, with normal rainfall expected in January.

The report says spring bre­e­ding areas along the southea­s­tern coasts of Iran and southwestern Pakistan are forecast to receive above-normal to nor­­mal rainfall in February and March.

FAO noted that very small-scale summer breeding may continue along the Indo-Pakistan border in October but is expected to end in Nove­mber. These rainfall patterns will also support locust breeding in the northern Sahel and Sudan through September and early October. Breeding is expected to decrease in November but may intensify again from December to March.

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The World Climate Service’s latest seasonal precipitation predictions cover the spring, summer and winter breeding areas of the desert locust.

The report says above-normal rainfall is expected in late September across the northern Sahel, the southern Arabian Peninsula, and the Indo-Pakistan border, and may persist into early October in West Africa and the Indo-Pakistan border.

A drying trend is anticipated across most regions in October and November due to a negative Indian Ocean Dipole.

Published in Dawn, September 22nd, 2025