LAHORE: In a surprising turn, cotton production in Pakistan has seen an unexpected increase this season, defying earlier predictions despite widespread heavy rainfall and flooding in key cotton-growing regions.

While the increase marks a positive development, the sector still faces significant challenges, with large areas of cotton crops submerged by floods, especially in Punjab. The floodwaters are now heading towards Sindh, threatening further damage.

According to the latest report from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) released on Wednesday, as of Augu 31, ginneries across the country had received 1.336 million bales of raw cotton, reflecting a 9 per cent increase over the same period last year.

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The rise has been largely driven by a notable surge in cotton arrivals from Sindh, where production is up by 87pc compared to Punjab. In fact, ginneries in Sindh received 352,000 bales between Aug 16 and 31, a sharp increase from 226,000 bales in the first half of August and a substantial jump from 130,000 bales in the same period last year.

This brings the total for Sindh to 1.336 million bales, a 13pc increase compared to 2024, despite the adverse weather conditions.

Lint production increases by 9pc driven mainly by a surge in Sindh

In contrast, cotton arrivals in Punjab have shown a more modest increase. Ginneries in the province received 466,000 bales by Aug 31, which is a 3pc rise compared to the same period last year. However, a separate report from the Crop Reporting Service Punjab indicated a record 125pc increase in cotton production in the province compared to the PCGA’s data.

Industry challenges persist

Despite the early positive figures, experts warn that the sector’s future remains uncertain. Ihsan Ul Haq, Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, cautioned that the full impact of the floods and rains will only be clear once the adverse weather conditions subside. While many cotton zones have experienced only minor damage, Bahawalnagar, Pakistan’s largest cotton-producing district, has reportedly seen a 50% loss in its crop.

Moreover, a recent report by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) projected a deficit of 100,000 tonnes (around 625,000 bales) in Pakistan’s total cotton production this year due to the weather-related disruptions.

Sajid Mahmood, an industry expert, explained that although initial reports show positive figures, they do not paint the full picture. Severe heatwaves, floods, and water shortages have put immense pressure on the cotton crop.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2025