AS we approach 80 years since the sun set on the British Raj, leaving the two separate states of India and Pakistan in its wake, the imperative of charting a lasting peace in the world’s most populous region is arguably more acute than ever. Yet under the influence of right-wing bigotry and militarism, the majority of people in both countries are instead baying for the proverbial other’s blood.
On Aug 14-15 this year, the military exchange which took place in May is still fresh in the memory, as is the banter on both sides about ‘winning the war’. There are, of course, many voices that resist the tide, but most young Indians and Pakistanis have little critical awareness about shared colonial legacies, let alone an imagination of a common future.
In the face of a renewed wave of state nationalism, let me suggest some potential futures for the almost 1.7 billion people who inhabit India and Pakistan, a figure which rises to almost 2bn if one includes Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal.
- A race to the bottom: The most likely future is an extension of the present, whereby Hindutva, (militant) Islamism and other variants of xenophobic nationalism take hold of ever greater segments of youth. In India, this equates to the further entrenchment of the BJP, RSS, VHP in society at large and the unchallenged rule of hawkish elements in the permanent state apparatus. In Pakistan, this means the reinforcement of khaki raj, complete surrender by the mainstream parties to the establishment, and a religious right ready and able to mobilise a critical mass outside the mainstream.
We must not become resigned to the status quo.
In both countries, anti-state militancy will intensify in brutalised peripheries. The state, in turn, will arrogate more and more power to itself in the name of fighting ‘terrorism’, and the politics of hate will become established as the only game in town.
- Respite for the liberal centre: The race to the bottom may be held up by a slightly resuscitated liberal centre. In India, this would see the Congress and small allied parliamentary forces taking governmental power, and pushing back against some aspects of majoritarianism. In Pakistan, this would take the form of a broad anti-establishment mobilisation against the now-normalised ‘hybrid’ rule.
However, the liberal centre remains unwilling to offer an alternative economic programme to the dominant development regime that is based on dispossession, ecocide and mindless consumption. A centrist pushback, then, will ultimately fail to stem the forces of reaction and create the conditions for militarist and far right ideologies to make deeper dents in the body politic.
- Pro-people forces unite within and without: The most unlikely scenario — lasting peace and shared prosperity — can become reality only if pro-people forces, representing the working masses, brutalised peripheries, women and future generations, come together both within and across states. This is not easy, especially given the sorry state of South Asia’s left-progressives. But we must engage in an exercise of imagination rather than become resigned to the status quo.
A pro-people programme requires an economic vision that privileges the needs of working masses over the profiteering of speculative investors, multinational capital and entrenched landed/ business interests. As important is ecological regeneration across mountainous areas, plains and coastal deltas. The fact that environmental landscapes across the subcontinent are being ravaged to no end is arguably the most obvious trigger for an alternative politics to transcend the regressive logics of colonial statecraft.
Such a politics demands that the traditional forces of the left — that speak the language of class and anti-imperialism — make common cause with the mass movements of the ethnic peripheries, else the critical mass necessary to displace both the far right and liberal centre cannot be generated. In India, this requires a dissolution of the hegemony of the Hindi-speaking belt, an acknowledgement of the historical oppression of Kashmiris, Nagas, tribal populations and many more, and more space for progressive leaders from the south. In Pakistan, this requires that the Baloch, Pakhtun, Gilgit-Baltistani, Kashmiri, Sindhi and Seraiki national questions are articulated alongside a class politics in Punjab and other metropolitan regions.
Finally, a regional common sense must be crafted whereby the interests of ordinary people everywhere — including Ladakh and Baltistan, both Kashmirs, Sindh and Rajasthan, both Punjabs, Pakhtuns across both sides of the Durand Line, as well as the most oppressed people like the Baloch and Nagas — are seen as one and the same. Only in such unity can imperialism in all of its guises be confined to the dustbin of history.
The writer teaches at Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.
Published in Dawn, August 15th, 2025
