JUST as the Western effort to oust Russia from Ukraine has within it the seeds of a much bigger conflict in Europe, America’s constant brinkmanship where the China-Taiwan question is concerned could spark the next great conflict in Asia. While Washington speaks of protecting ‘democracy’ by aiding the self-ruling island — which the People’s Republic considers its inseparable part — the fact is that military aid and sales to Taiwan, as well as the strengthening of anti-Beijing alliances such as the Quad and AUKUS, give the impression that the US is trying to contain China in the Asia-Pacific. The latest US arms sales to Taiwan only strengthen this impression. While Washington has long sold arms to Taipei, and is, in fact, bound by US law to support Taiwan’s defence, the recent decision to supply arms under the Foreign Military Financing scheme has raised eyebrows, particularly in Beijing. This is because the aforesaid programme is usually used to provide weapons to sovereign states, which Taiwan is not, as the majority of the international community recognises only China. The State Department says the US “has an abiding interest in peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait”, though Beijing clearly disagrees. The Chinese foreign ministry’s spokesperson said that the arms sale “undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests”.

The US seems to be sending mixed signals to China. While senior American officials have been visiting Beijing over the past few months to discuss differences, the Biden administration continues to disregard China’s reservations and maintain strong links with Taiwan. The problem with this mixed messaging is that it can very rapidly lead to misunderstandings, and result in hostilities. Neither side may want war, but if the US continues to prod Beijing on Taiwan to gauge its reaction, it could result in unintended — and unfortunate — consequences. The Taiwan question should be resolved amicably between Beijing and Taipei, and external actors should stop fanning the flames.

Published in Dawn, September 4th, 2023